NBA Picks: Forget The Record, Focus On The Total For Warriors vs. Spurs

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, April 10, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 10, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

The Spurs will try to stop Golden State from getting to 73 wins. Will San Antonio rest anyone, or will it even matter as the Warriors cruise into this one as +5½ underdogs, and a total of 205 In NBA Odds? 

Last big hurdle
For the Warriors, this seems to be the last big step for them. A win tonight would tie them with the Bulls for the all time single season wins record, and one more would put them atop the list as the greatest single season NBA team of all time.

After resting his players in their most recent game against the Nuggets, the Spurs might counter the Warriors with a somewhat full squad here tonight. You know that deep down, even though Gregg Popovich cares about rest, he would love to be the one that stops the Warriors from getting to that 73 win mark. The NBA Odds have the Spurs as -5 ½ favorites also tells me they are thinking the same thing, so while Popovoch might give Tim Duncan, or another one of his veterans the night off, I expect the core of the Spurs to be ready and starting in this one.

That being said, where do we need to go with our NBA Picks? The Spurs are of course the best home defensive team in the NBA this season, and that has seemingly been one of the reasons the total in this one has dropped from 209 where it opened, down to 205. The first time these two played one another from San Antonio, the Spurs were able to get the win by forcing the Dubs to play at their pace. That led to a final score of 87-79, and the Warriors’ lowest point total of the season.

Now we head there again with pride on the line for both teams. So, will this be another low scoring game? The Warriors have only played six road games in the last five weeks, and five of those six games have gone under the total, including their game at San Antonio back in March. The Spurs on the other hand have cashed the over in four of their last five home games, which was probably more of a product of the sportsbooks underinflating the totals. Indeed the Spurs defense at home has still been fantastic during those games. In their last eight home games they have given up only 92.5 points per game. With both teams coming in on pretty horrible ATS stretches, the under might be the way to go.

 

The Sharp Pick
San Antonio is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games heading into this one, and the Warriors haven’t been much better. Golden State is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games, so the spread to be is off limits. At -5 ½, it seems pretty sharp for a spread that is being played in San Antonio, but I think with the Spurs still playing good defense, and both teas playing for pride in this one, the under could be a pretty solid play.

Golden State has allowed less than 100 points in four of their last five home games heading into tonight, and if their first road game against the Spurs this season was any indication, it looks like it could cash once again here this evening.

Even though I broke this rule earlier with my NBA Picks of the day, the earlier start time might hurt the offenses in this one just a bit. This game is starting at 5 PM local time, and with the potential of some of the Warriors veterans sitting out as well, the second team defenses in this one might outperform the offenses. Take the under before the total is bet down even further.

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NBA Pick:  Under 204.5
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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