Spurs vs. Mavs
The Spurs took care of business in Game 5 at home, and Tony Parker looked fantastic after his ankle injury in Game 4. The Spurs got a lot of contributions from not only their stars, but some of their role players as well. Tonight, the NBA odds only have them as only -3 road favorites in Dallas, with a total of 198 ½.
Our pick on Game 5 of this series cashed, and after the total skied over two nights ago, the total for this game has actually shrunk a half point. After the high scoring affair in San Antonio, I think there could be some more big scoring efforts tonight in Dallas. After Game 5, three of the last four games of this series have gone 'over,' and even though the Mavs are backed into a corner, I don’t think they can magically become a great defensive team.
The Spurs are 24-19 cashing the 'over' during the regular and postseason when playing on the road, while the Mavs are cashing the 'over' at 25-18 at home. More importantly, including the two instances this series, the Mavs are 8-1 cashing the 'over' when playing as a home dog this year. I see another game much like Game 5, and while the scoring might not be that plentiful, I do see it leading to the 'over' being the play tonight.
Free NBA Pick: 'over' 198 ½
Raptors vs. Nets
The Raptors almost became the victims of one of the greatest NBA playoff comebacks of all time, but even after giving up a 22-point lead and 44 points in the fourth quarter, the Raptors ended the game up two points for the win. They failed to cover, but if they had one more basket, they would have covered the last three games of this series.
Tonight in Brooklyn, the NBA odds have the Nets as solid -5 favorites against Toronto, with a total of 191 points. After blowing that lead, you have to think the Raptors won’t make the same mistake in this game. They are playing better basketball right now, and the only thing keeping them from winning this game and this series is staring at them in the mirror. Both members of the Raptors’ backcourt are tearing up the Nets, and without Brook Lopez, Jonas Valanciunas is having a great series chipping in 13 points per game and shooting 67% from the floor.
The spread of +5 is too high, even though this game is in Brooklyn. The Nets may very well force a Game 7, but I think the Raptors can keep the game within one, or two, possessions and get the cover here. Their only crime in Game 5 was taking their foot off the gas after three quarters, and with how much of an athletic advantage they have over Brooklyn, I see them being a solid NBA pick tonight.
Including the regular and postseason, the Raptors are 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season, and they are 22-11 ATS as an underdog. They should have three straight wins ATS in this series, but I think they’ll make it three of four after tonight.
Free NBA Pick: Raptors +5