Curry’s Back, But Pistons Are The Right Call Versus Warriors

Jason Lake

Friday, November 30, 2018 7:28 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 30, 2018 7:28 PM UTC

Stephen Curry has missed 11 games for the Golden State Warriors with a tender groin. That makes the Detroit Pistons the right NBA pick when Curry plays on Saturday.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 29: 6-6 ATS, 4-1 Totals

Golden State (15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS) at Detroit (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS)Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ETFree NBA Pick: Pistons ATSBest Line Offered: at Heritage

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The Golden State Warriors are about to get their most important player back. As great as Kevin Durant (plus-5.7 BPM) may be, this team will only go as far as Stephen Curry (plus-7.9 BPM) takes it. And they’ve gone 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS over the past 11 games while Curry has sat out with a tender groin. Not good.

Curry is expected to play this Saturday when the Warriors visit the Detroit Pistons. It’s great news for Dubs fans, but when it comes to our NBA picks, we’re going to have to fade the defending champs one more time. This is one of those classic old-school handicapping spots where the betting market is very likely to overvalue the returning superstar in his first game back from an extended hiatus. Let’s get some of this while we can.

Cook Green Curry

Groin (and hamstring) injuries are very tricky things. They never seem to heal all that quickly or reliably; Curry’s level of play in his first game back is almost certainly going to be less than MVP-worthy, even more so than if he were returning from a generic sprained ankle. He could be on some kind of minutes restriction, too, further limiting the positive impact Curry might have on Saturday’s contest.

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Just wait till Steph’s (@StephenCurry30) back. We’ll be splashing from everywhere. 💧 pic.twitter.com/apt0yNPBLH

— Warriors Nation (@SFWarriorNation) 30 de novembro de 2018
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And he should have at least some impact. Quinn Cook (minus-1.7 BPM) has started eight games for the Warriors in Curry’s absence, and he’s no MVP. But to be fair, Golden State went 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS with Cook in the starting five. They tried going bigger in the other three games and got smashed each time. Andre Iguodala (0.0 BPM) has been starting in place of Draymond Green (plus-1.1 BPM), who remains on the shelf with a damaged toe, so getting Cook (44.7 percent from downtown) more minutes was necessary for balance while Curry (49.2 percent) was away.

Piston Hurricane

On the other side of the coin, we have the Pistons, who come into this game almost completely healthy – although they will be playing on zero days of rest, after hosting the Chicago Bulls on Friday (7:00 p.m. ET). That quick turnaround is enough to make us recommend only a small wager on Detroit, but we’ll take our chances with the home side.

The early NBA odds for Saturday’s game have yet to hit the board as we go to press, so we’re relying on the old “first game back from injury” play. FiveThirtyEight project Golden State as a very slim favorite (–0.5, or 51 percent to win), so if you see the Dubs favored by 2.5 points or more, grab them cakes, and may the sphere be with you.

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