NBA Picks: Expert Predicts Tired Jazz & Warriors To Go ' Under'

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, March 9, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

The Warriors come into this one as a -13 ½ favorite, with a total of 207 ½ on the NBA odds boards. Will the Jazz be able to hang with Golden State, or will the Dubs blow them out at home tonight? 

Jazz Defense Versus Warriors’ Offense
It’s a true test of will tonight as the Jazz, one of the better young defensive teams in the NBA head into face the league’s top offensive team. These two teams have played twice this year already, and while the Warriors blew out the Jazz in their only meeting this year from Oracle, the Jazz hung tough in their game at home earlier in the season. So while they have split their season series ATS, tonight should be telling for both teams.

The Jazz have been slipping recently, as they have lost six of their last seven games SU, and starting in February they have been an excellent fade against the NBA odds boards. The Jazz are only 5-11-1 ATS since the start of February, and March has brought more of the same for this team at 1-3 ATS. While their defense failed them at times in February, recently they have been getting it back. Even though they haven’t played well recently, in their last seven games, the Jazz are giving up only 96.7 points per game, but their scoring has been even worse, averaging only 91.5 points during that same stretch.

We always talk about how good the Warriors are on offense, but their defense hasn’t been half bad either. Their fast pace leads them to give up more points than a team that plays at a slower pace, but their Defensive Rating of 103.4 stills ranks them 7th in the league. Tonight against the Jazz, we could see a more defensive game with the Warriors playing at home. The total has already been slowly ticking downward from 210 points where it opened, and I think the under could be a fantastic play to close out our night of NBA Picks with a win.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Jazz have been very good this season cashing the under in conference play at 20-16-1, and while they have been better at cashing the over on no rest, in games where they play their second game of a back to back on the road they are only 3-4 cashing the under. Tonight against the Warriors, who limited the Jazz to only 85 points in their last trip to Oracle, the under looks like the best play for this game.

The Warriors are also coming into this game possibly a little tired, playing their third game in four nights, which would have a negative effect on their offense. While the Dubs cashed the over against the Thunder in their last third game in four nights, the one before that against the Hawks, another good defensive team, the final score ended at 102-92, easily cashing the under.

The Jazz have now cashed the under in five of their last seven heading into this one, while the Warriors have cashed the under at 2-1-1 in their last four overall games. Look for the Jazz to try and slow down the Warriors as much as possible in this one, and look for the under to cash for these two tired teams. Be sure to also check out the latest NBA games happening tonight and cash in! 

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NBA Pick: Under 208.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle