NBA Picks: Dreary Rockets Shouldn't Be Favored This Much, Take Sixers +10.5

Friday, November 27, 2015 4:24 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 4:24 PM UTC

Philadelphia is still winless on the season, but 8-8 against the NBA odds, 3-0 ATS over its last three games. Can the Sixers make it four in a row Friday night in Houston?

Sixers-Rockets Betting Odds
Most of Friday's NBA odds market opened this game with Houston favored by 12 points, the O/U offered at right around 201. In the early betting most books dropped the Rockets to -11, and the total to 199.

Those who think Philly has a chance to win this game outright – which would be a first on this season – could get a moneyline price of +518 at 5Dimes.


The Situation
Houston (5-10 SU, 3-12 ATS) has lost three games in a row, and seven of its last eight, after going down at home against Memphis Wednesday night 102-93. The Rockets only trailed by a couple of buckets early in the fourth quarter, but went dead cold from there, and faded.

Houston shot just 42 percent from the field Wednesday, just 35 percent without James Harden, and turned the ball over 20 times.

Last Sunday the Rockets lost at home to New York 107-102, and last Friday they lost at Memphis 96-84. So canning Coach McHale hasn't done much to improve Houston's performance yet.

Philly, meanwhile, is still winless on the season at 0-16, but is 8-8 against the Great Equalizer, the point spread. The Sixers have also covered three games in a row, after falling at Boston Wednesday night 84-80 but covering as 11-point road dogs. Philly actually led the Celtics by 11 points midway through the fourth quarter, but got outscored from there 18-3.

On the night the Sixers only shot 37 percent from the floor, made just seven of 27 shots from 3-point land and committed 19 turnovers. But they kept things close by limiting Boston to just 34 percent shooting and holding their own on the boards.

Monday Philly lost at Minnesota 100-95 but much to this handicapper's delight covered at +7; and last Saturday the Sixers lost at Miami 96-91 but covered at +12. Sooner or later Philly is going to win a game; the trick is to bet the right night.


Sixers-Rockets Recent History
Houston has beaten Philly three times in a row, including a sweep of two games last season, but the Sixers covered both games last year. First the Rockets won at Philly 104-93, but the Sixers covered as 12-point home dogs; then Houston won at home 88-87 but Philly covered easily at +16.

The Sixers actually outshot the Rockets in those two games combined by a 44-40 percent margin, but committed 44 turnovers, although Houston wasn't much better, committing 43 turnovers. Maybe that's why both those games played UNDER totals of 200 and 206.


Sixers-Rockets Totals Trends
Philly is 8-8 on the totals this season, as Sixers games have averaged 193 points.

Houston is 9-6 on the UNDERS, even though Rockets games have averaged 207 points.


Free NBA Picks
Philadelphia can tie the NBA record for consecutive defeats – one it already holds - at 26 with a loss Friday night, and seems a team in total disarray. But the Sixers have held fourth-quarter leads in each of their last three games, covering each time out. Houston, meanwhile, is a huge disappointment so far, and probably shouldn't be favored by this much against anybody. We'll take Philly here, plus the points for our NBA picks. Also, these teams played a pair of UNDERS last season, and neither is shooting the ball very well this year. So we're thinking UNDER.

Free NBA Picks: Sixers +10.5 at 5Dimes and UNDER 198.5 at Pinnacle

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