Impressive Bucks Have Betting Value at Warriors in TNT Late Game

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 7, 2018 7:07 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2018 7:07 PM UTC

The Golden State Warriors have been surprisingly profitable this year, but the Milwaukee Bucks are the right NBA pick for Thursday’s marquee matchup in Oakland.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 7: 3-4 ATS, 1-1 Totals

Milwaukee (8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) at Golden State (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)Free NBA Pick: Bucks ATSBest Line Offered: SportsBetting

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What happened to the Golden State Warriors? They were supposed to be a prime fade candidate this year, but here we are with the Dubs at 7-4 ATS after 11 games. They’re playing at a much higher level than they did last season – heck, they’re playing better than ever before. And they don’t even have DeMarcus Cousins ready to go yet. Sheesh.

We’re still looking to fade the Warriors at home Thursday, but only because they’re playing the Milwaukee Bucks. Don’t look now, but the Bucks are outplaying Golden State thus far, which would make Milwaukee the best team of all-time if they keep it up. There are no back-to-backs around this game to worry about, and the Bucks are still a small-market team that hasn’t gotten the attention they deserve, so give them serious consideration for your NBA picks.

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GIANNIS THAT MAN HAS A FAMILY 😱

📺 https://t.co/clYyjhP0qO pic.twitter.com/t3IqcmwfCH

— FOX Sports Wisconsin (@fswisconsin) November 4, 2018
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The Giannis Reprisal

Let’s start with the Warriors. They lead the Western Conference with a plus-11.90 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference; that’s up from plus-11.35 two years ago, when Kevin Durant came to town and they took their title back from Cleveland. Remember how this year’s Warriors were supposed to be vulnerable because of their depleted bench? Forget that: Damion Jones (plus-6.0 BPM) and Kevon Looney (plus-4.3 BPM) are blossoming, Jonas Jerebko (plus-3.0 BPM) is fitting in nicely – even Alfonso McKinnie (plus-0.8 BPM) is contributing after signing a two-way deal with the Dubs in mid-October.

Nice, but the Bucks are eating Golden State’s lunch right now. They’ve got a plus-14.48 SRS heading into this contest, an incredible turnaround in their first year under head coach Mike Budenholzer. Their incredible 1970-71 title team, featuring Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Oscar Robertson, had a plus-11.92 SRS. But they didn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-7.9 BPM), who’s got even more talent surrounding him now that Brook Lopez (plus-3.5 BPM) and Ersan Ilyasova (plus-4.2 BPM) are in town. Next stop: MVP?

The Bucks also figure to have the health advantage for Thursday. They don’t have any major injuries to report, but the Warriors might be without Draymond Green (plus-3.4 BPM), who suffered a right foot contusion during Monday’s 117-101 win over the Memphis Grizzlies (+13.5 away). Green is listed as day-to-day, as is backup point guard Shawn Livingston (plus-1.6 BPM), who has only played four games because of a sore right foot. As always, wait for Thursday’s shootaround to see who’s active, and compare the projections with the NBA odds when they come out, but be prepared to pounce on the Bucks – and may the sphere be with you.

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