NBA Picks: Clippers vs. Warriors in Game 6

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 30, 2014 5:27 PM GMT

At the beginning of the playoffs I picked the Clippers to win in seven games, so the only way that will happen is if the Warriors win Thursday night. The NBA Odds have them as slight home dogs, and there could be value in Oakland.

Mario Sucked; Luigi the Star in Game 5 Loss
If we are going to keep referring to these guys as the Splash Brothers, (Let it be known that I hate the nickname and I think they are both good enough to have separate nicknames) I am going to refer to Stephen Curry as Mario and Klay Thompson as Luigi. To sum it up in one sentence, Mario had eight of the Warriors 13 turnovers and deferred to Luigi; the game’s leading scorer in Game 5. Mario only took 10 shots all game.

The NBA Odds for Game 6 have the Clippers as slight -1 favorites on the road, with a total of 209. Some sportsbooks even have the games as a pick em, but the real value in this game could lie in a classic moneyline bet on the Warriors. They are right at even money at most shops, and a +100 wager might be some of the best Thursday value.

The Warriors have now covered their last three games against the Clippers when playing in Oakland, and although the Clippers won Game 3 by the bay, the Warriors have also covered four of their last five against LA when playing at home. A big bounce back from Mario is bound to happen here, as he tends to show up when the Warriors need him the most.

[gameodds]5/284104/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick
Combining one instance this regular season, along with their two games in Oakland this postseason, the Warriors are a perfect 3-0 ATS as home underdogs this year, and I think they can keep themselves perfect after Game 6. The Clippers have not played a great game at Golden State yet, and even their win in Game 3 was not overly convincing. Both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul missed crucial free throws in the last 30 seconds of that game that could have made it so the Warriors didn’t have a shot at the buzzer to win the game.  

Now with elimination on their minds, and following a loss, the Warriors will come back at home to win this game. Following a loss this season, the Warriors are 21-11-1 ATS, and I think Curry will be the one to lead them.

Curry took only ten shots in Game 5, and along with his eight turnovers, it was probably forgettable according to him. However when the Warriors need him the most is when Curry normally shines, and much like I think Kevin Durant will show up on the road in Game 6 on Thursday, I think Curry can have a big game.

Another issue that might lead to the Warriors win here is their role players. The Clippers have had some issues with guys like Andre Iguodala, and in Games 3 and 4, the Warriors had five and six guys in double figures. If that’s the case again on Thursday, I could see the Warriors getting a big win for our nba picks.

My Pick: Warriors +100