NBA Picks: Cleveland Cavaliers 2013-14 NBA Futures

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:50 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 5, 2013 7:50 PM GMT

The Cavs are entering a new season with a new head coach and a lot of high hopes in northern Ohio. The NBA Odds are very kind to the Cavs this offseason, so let’s take a look into why the sportsbooks have Cleveland so high this season, and whether or not that optimism will translate into over inflation of the NBA Odds.

Future Odds +6000

The Cavs come in at +6000 to win the title this season, that’s right in the middle of the league, and in front of 15 other teams. Cleveland fired Byron Scott and hired back Mike Brown this year. Brown will try and reinstall his defense first scheme, and with the new addition at the center position, the Cavs look like they may be able to do just that.

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While their big move might not be enough to bring Lebron James back from his Miami championship vacation, the Cavs made headlines by signing Andrew Bynum to a partially guaranteed two-year contract. He will immediately start ahead of the returning Anderson Varejao. While Bynum is oft injured, if those days are behind him, (not likely) he could be the missing piece to a young and already very talented roster. He and Kyrie Irving will be a deadly 1-5 punch.

Along with Bynum, the Cavs of course had the number one overall pick in the draft, and chose 3-4 combo forward, Anthony Bennett, making him the highest selected Canadian ever in the NBA Draft. While some argue he is being drafted into a crowded frontcourt, if Bennett can pick up the small forward position, he too could be a big piece. The Cavs have struggled for the last three years trying to replace the hole that James left at small forward, and they may have fixed that from the draft.

But the real question lies, are the NBA odds off when they list the Cavs as a 60/1 team to win the title this year? Even though the potential lineup of Irving, Deon Waiters, Bennett, Tristan Thompson and Bynum looks great on paper, there is health risk written all over their starting five.

The Sharp Pick 

It is for this reason that I have to give the Cavs the 'overvalued' label this offseason. They could very well prove me wrong, but with all the downside of some of their starters when it comes to their games missed last season, 60/1 is far too much for this still blossoming team. Bynum missed every game and Waiters and Irving both missed more than 20 games last season.

On top of the new additions and coach, the Cavs play in the toughest division in the entire NBA, the East’s Central. The Bulls and Pacers are likely the only two east teams with a chance at knocking off Miami, and the Pistons will also likely be a playoff team with a ton of upside this season. The deck is stacked against the Cavs this season, and the sportsbooks are simply trying to eat all the money that comes in on the overvalued Cavs. I could easily see this overvaluing carry over into the regular season, making the Cavs a nice fade. Cleveland was 40-41-1 ATS last season, and with all the hype of Bynum teaming up with Irving, I’m keeping away from them with my NBA picks.

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