NBA Picks for Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Inspired by Offensive Efficiency

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 3:27 PM GMT

Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2015 3:27 PM GMT

The game of the night tonight is Lebron James and the Mavs hooking up from Dallas tonight, and the NBA Odds have the Cavs as -4 ½ road favorites in this one, with a total of 201. How will you bet?

The game of the night tonight is Lebron James and the Mavs hooking up from Dallas tonight, and the NBA Odds have the Cavs as -4 ½ road favorites in this one, with a total of 201. Which side of these NBA Odds should we be on tonight? Who stops Lebron?

Long gone are the days where the Mavs had a healthy and younger Shawn Marion (now on the Cavs) to throw against Lebron James. Now the Mavs have very little in regards to a wing stopper. In fact Chandler Parsons is nowhere near a god wing defender, so James should have no issue scoring in this one.

However the same might be said about Dirk Nowitzki. Kevin Love was having trouble with Markieff Morris the other night, so it would not surprise me if the Cavs switch James onto Dirk, which would force them to go small against Tyson Chandler and Parsons. This could lead to the Mavs having a better night offensively, and with the struggles they have had in that areas recently, it might be a welcome change.

That being said, the total for this game looks like the better play. The spread is to the point where it’s pretty sharp, and either team could cover the spread. However with a total of only 201 points, the over could be a really good play here. Even though they have been falling off offensively since the trade of Rajon Rondo, the Mavs have been really good at cashing NBA picks on the over as home dogs.

Here are 6 Free NBA Picks in One Odds Report for Tonight's Betting Action!

The Sharp Pick
The over is 35-15-2 for the Mavs in their last 52 games as home underdogs. While that goes back several seasons, and while they haven’t been home dogs much this year, it still is telling about how this team performs when a good team comes to their building. On top of that, the Mavs have cashed the over at 19-6-1 in their last 26 games as a home underdog between +1 and +4 ½.

The Cavs on the other hand have actually been better at cashing the under recently. They have cashed the under in seven of their last nine games overall, and since the end of the 2014 year, they Cavs have cashed the under at 23-11. However against winning teams, the Cavs have been much more consistent at cashing the over. Cleveland has cashed the over in five of their last six road games against winning home teams, and they have cashed the over in four of their last five games against teams with winning percentages of 60% or better.

On top of the recent trends for both teams, I expect this game to be played at a pretty fast pace. Dallas plays at one of the fastest paces of any of the other 29 NBA teams. Both teams are tied for 4th in offensive efficiency as well, and even with the Mavs struggles, they should have enough in this one to score close to 100 points. Take the over and add it to your NBA Picks for Tuesday night.

NBA Pick: OVER 201 at 5Dimes

comment here