NBA Picks: Cavaliers To Come Out Victorious In Showdown vs. Pistons

Kevin Stott

Thursday, April 21, 2016 8:04 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 21, 2016 8:04 PM GMT

Let's figure out what the best NBA pick is in the series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons, which has seen more than its share of 'unders.'

NBA PICKS RECORD THIS WEEK: 0-2 — LAST WEEK: 2-4 — PREVIOUS WEEK: 1-2

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

Odds Overview
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons [Saturday 00:05] (ESPN, Directv 206 (US), BT Sport 1 (UK), 7:05 p.m. EDT/4:05 p.m. PDT): LeBron James and the No. 1-seed and defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25 SU, 33-8 Home in Regular Season) look to wrap things up on Friday night at The Palace of Auburn Hills (suburban Detroit) against the No. 8-seed Detroit Pistons (44-38 SU, 18-23 Away) in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Playoffs series. Sportsbooks currently have the Cavaliers opening as 4½-point favorites (Heritage) in this game with the Total (Points) at 201 (Heritage). The Money Line Winner) odds currently see visitors Cleveland priced at -185 (Bookmaker) with the host Pistons lined at +165 the takeback as the logical Game 4 Home underdogs.

The First Half NBA odds see LeBron and the Cavaliers as small 2-point favorites (GTBets) with the First Half Total set at 102 (GTBets) with Cleveland priced at -145 in the First Half Moneyline marketplace with the host Pistons at +125 on the takeback (GTBets). The Cavaliers won Game 1 on Sunday at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, 106-101, but failed to cover the Point Spread as big 11-point chalks with the game going Over the closing Total of 200. The Cavaliers won Game 2 on Wednesday, 107-90, again at The Q, easily covering the 10½-point line (202, Under).

 

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers (37-42-3 ATS, 20-21-1 ATS Home in Regular Season) and Head Coach Tyronn Lue used a 27-15 3rd Quarter to run away with its’ Game 3 victory on Wednesday, and with it, both protected its Home-court Advantage and left open the possibility for a Sweep and some valuable Rest. In the win, it was four Cleveland Starters who provided the bulk of the points while once again, the Center position was a mystery for the Cavaliers (39/10 win NBA Championship, GTBets) with starter Tristan Thompson (13:23 PT) having 0 points and 1 rebound while backup Timofey Mozgov (9:07) had 0 points and o rebounds so, nothing from the Cavs Big Men.

SF LeBron James (27 points, 6 rebounds), PF Kevin Love (16 points, 10 rebounds), PG Kyrie Irving (22 points) and SG JR Smith (21 points) were all in Playoffs mode while gritty backup PG Matthew Dellavedova (8 points, 9 assists) did his thing as he always does this time of year. But to have a chance to beat the Western Conference champions or even get out of the Eastern Conference, Cleveland (4/19 to win Eastern Conference, GTBets) will need much more from Thompson and Mozgov in the Center spot as well as Reserves like Richard Jefferson (3 points), Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye and the newly signed Dahntay Jones.

 

Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons (42-38-2 ATS, 18-23-0 ATS Away) went 4-for-17 from 3-point territory (23.5%) in Wednesday’s Game 2 Loss in Cleveland, Detroit (150/1 to win Eastern Conference, GTBets) was led by starters C Andre Drummond (20 points, 7 rebounds), PF Marcus Morris (11 points, 7 rebounds), SF Tobias Harris (13 points, 8 rebounds), SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (13 points, 8 rebounds) and PG Reggie Jackson (14 points, 6 assists) and all had good games for Head Coach Stan Van Gundy but the familiar theme of not being able to hold on in the 2nd Half.

They emerged as the more-experienced NBA Playoffs team created a double-digit lead and a nice arm’s-length distance between themselves and their opponents and made sure they would be 2-0 on that trip up to Motown for Games 3 and Games 4. Rookie Stanley Johnson (9 points) had another nice game off the bench for the Pistons (350/1 to win NBA championship, GTBets), but Detroit only received 12 other points from its Bench (Steve Blake 6, Jodie Meeks 2, Spencer Dinwiddie 2 points, Aron Baynes 2 points) from other players and like so many before them this last decade, will have to try to figure out out how to try to stop that human freight train named LeBron James.

 

Thoughts, Trends, Streaks, Recent Relevant Series Information and Pick
The Favorites were 14-2 SU in the NBA Playoffs heading into action Thursday night so any thoughts this Opening Round has been boring seem spot on with many of the Home sides rushing out to big leads and the games being less than entertaining. The two biggest Trends that seem to matter in this spot are that Detroit is now 1-5 ATS in its L6 Conference Quarterfinal (First Round) games after Wednesday’s SU and ATS setback while the Cavaliers are now 16-7 ATS in their L23 Conference Quarterfinal Games. But Cleveland will simply care more about just winning this game somehow and not winning by 6 points, so maybe approaching this game with the Cavaliers at the fair price on the Moneyline (-185, Bookmaker) is the best idea.

Some other Trends: Cleveland is just 27-54-1 ATS its L82 vs. the NBA Central (33.3%), 1-3 ATS in its L4 vs. the Pistons and 2-8-1 ATS L11 vs Central Division while the Under is 15-7 in the Cavaliers L22 games played on a Friday, a day where Cleveland is 7-3 ATS the L10. Hearing about the loss this morning of Musical legend and personal idol Prince—a huge NBA fan—has made writing about this Game 3 of the Pistons-Cavaliers nearly impossible as a true Genius has died, so let’s just leave it here and say that the Pistons will give it their best and may make some noise in this one in the first 3 quarters, but with the Cavaliers having James, Love, Irving, Smith and Dellavedova and all that experience and confidence on their Roster and on the same page and in a groove right now, simply backing the Cavs to win here seems like the safest look in Detroit. My final score prediction for this NBA pick Cavaliers 104 Pistons 92

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Free NBA Pick: Cavaliers -190
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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