NBA Picks: Cash In The Under In Wolves vs. Warriors Matchup

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, April 5, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The Warriors going for their 70th win of the season against the Wolves. The NBA Odds sure think they will get there too, as they have the Dubs as -15½ favorites, with a total of 225 points. 

Warriors Quest for 73
Jay Price wrote a great article on the site about the Warriors’ quest for 73 wins, and how it may affect their playoff chances, and more importantly, their ability to cover spreads. He mentioned a couple of excellent points that need repeating. Their average margin of victory has dropped to only eight points per game since the All Star Break, and their defense has been faltering as well since the official second half began. Golden State is giving up 106.8 points per game since the All Star Break, which is much higher than their 103 points per game given up before it.

However, raw numbers and NBA Odds don’t tell the entire story when it comes to the Warriors, especially when it comes to how many points they are giving up. Golden State is still ranked second in their opponent’s field goal percentage this season at 43.5 percent, which ties them with the ever-touted Spurs defense in that category. They are also tied with the Spurs for first in their opponent’s three-point percentage this season at 33.1 percent.

So while you can point to the fact that they rank 20th in point allowed, the more important number is their Defensive Rating, which accounts for the lightening pace they play at. Golden State ranks 5th in DRtg this season at 103.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. They are behind on the Spurs, Hawks, Pacers and Celtics in that category. They also ran third in their opponent’s Effective Field Goal percentage, which accounts for their solid defense against three-pointers.

This makes for an interesting play tonight on the total for this game. While I am scared away from the spread As an NBA Pick, the total has been shortening over the last 24 hours and has dropped from 229 to 225 since last night. This seems to indicate that the sharps are on the under in this one, and I am following them, hopefully to the bank.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Wolves have been awful on offense over their last three games headed into this one. They have cashed the under in all three games, and they failed to reach 90 points in all three of them, and failed to even get to 80 in two of them. Two of the games were against solid defensive teams in the Jazz and Clippers, but the most recent one against the Mavs is concerning for the Wolves’ offense. Heading on the road tonight against a good defensive team who will be looking to shut down the young Wolves early, and you have a recipe for the under to be a solid play. If the Wolves don’t get to 90 points again tonight, you could easily see the under cash, even if the Dubs drop 125, which is also not as likely.

Before their recent beat down of the Blazers, Golden State scored just 106 against the Celtics, and 102 against the Wizards. The Wolves are by no means a great defensive team, but in this, their Super Bowl, they are going to give the Dubs all they can handle. The under has cashed in five of the last six times there two teams have faced one another, and I think they do it for the sixth time tonight. Golden State is coming into this one cashing the under in eight of their last 11 games overall.

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Free NBA Pick:  Warriors Under 225 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage