NBA Picks: Capper's Eye Finds Betting Value On Wizards +2 vs. Bulls

Jason Lake

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 7:17 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016 7:17 PM GMT

The Washington Wizards had a pretty easy game on Tuesday. Can they dial it up again Wednesday night when they visit the wounded, yet ever-dangerous Chicago Bulls?

Jason's 2015-16 record as of Feb. 22: 22-28-1 ATS, 5-1-1 Total

 

That went about as well as we could have hoped. The Washington Wizards were in our NBA picks for Tuesday's game against the New Orleans Pelicans, and Washington did us a solid, hammering the Pellies 109-89 as a 4.5-point home chalk. John Wall had a triple-double (16 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists) for the Wiz. It was glorious.

Next up: Wednesday's game (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the Chicago Bulls, who have developed a nasty habit of cashing in despite missing so many key players. They'll get it on at the United Center, with the Bulls laying two points on the NBA odds board as we go to press. Shall we go for a double-dip?

 

Moore's Law
Gotta do the math first – even better, let's let the hoop nerds do most of the work. FiveThirtyEight has this matchup pegged at Chicago –6, while the Simple Rating System at Basketball-Reference works out to around Chicago –5. That's not factoring in all those injured Bulls, though. Gone from Wednesday's game are Jimmy Butler (21.9 PER, +4.4 BPM), Joakim Noah (14.2 PER, +2.4 BPM) and Nikola Mirotic (14.5 PER, +0.4 BPM). Bonus: Pau Gasol (22.4 PER, +4.1 BPM) is questionable with the flu. He'll probably play anyway, but keep an eye on the shootaround, just in case.

All those missing players should add up to well above the handful of extra points we need to make this spread worth betting. But the Bulls (29-26 SU, 22-33 ATS) haven't been complying lately. Doug McDermott (9.9 PER, –3.0 BPM) had another strong game against the Los Angeles Lakers, scoring 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting. Bobby Portis (14.8 PER, –3.1 BPM) provided 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists off the bench. And E'Twaun Moore (11.6 PER, –1.3 BPM) took full advantage of his starting assignment with 24 points, hitting all four of his trey attempts. Not much you can do about that.

 

Call for Markieff Morris
The Wizards (26-29 SU, 29-26 ATS) will be playing the second leg of back-to-back games, with some travel thrown in, so that's not good for our heroes – FiveThirtyEight takes those factors into account with its projections, by the way. However, thanks to that blowout win over New Orleans, none of the Wiz had to play more than 30 minutes Tuesday night.

So we're going to stick with Washington after all. Let's not forget about Markieff Morris (10.5 PER, –4.2 BPM), who's still getting his feet wet in D.C. Morris only had six points on 3-of-8 shooting against the Pellies, but he contributed in other areas on the floor, and again, Washington is a much deeper team for his presence. Consider a small bet, given how ornery those danged Bulls are, and may the sphere be with you.

 

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NBA Pick: Washington +2
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

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