NBA Picks: Can Grizzlies Avoid A Sweep Tonight Against Red Hot Spurs?

Jay Pryce

Sunday, April 24, 2016 12:20 PM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 24, 2016 12:20 PM GMT

The Spurs are big favorites to sweep the Grizzlies in Memphis this afternoon. Need an NBA pick for the game? We got you covered. Read on and profit as you enjoy the game.

San Antonio Spurs (70-15 SU, 45-39-1 ATS)
It was the Kawhi Leonard show in Game 3, as the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, took over on both ends of the court. Leonard scored 32 points on 11 of 22 shooting from from the field, collecting seven rebounds, two assists, and six three-pointers. Defensively, he swiped four steals and stood tall for five blocks. Oh, and Leonard did not have a turnover on the night. Impressive.

Following Game 3, Memphis averages 78.8 points on 38.7 percent shooting in five games against the Spurs when Leonard plays. Armed with few sharpshooters and struggling against San Antonio's perimeter defense, it is finding just 3.4 three-pointers a night on 22.7 percent shooting from behind the arc. Leonard, in fact, has drained more treys than the entire Grizzlies roster in all but one of the meetings, posting 3.8 per game.

Perhaps showing signs of tiredness, the offense has not surpassed its projected team total in eight of ten games following the All-Star break in road games when Leonard plays. Following its failure to cover in Game 3, they've dropped six of their final seven against the NBA Odds spread in this spot.

The 13-point spread is the greatest for any road chalk in the NBA playoffs since at least 2000.

A win tonight would give the Spurs their third postseason series sweep of the Grizzlies and ninth overall.

 

 

Memphis Grizzlies (42-43 SU, 43-41-1 ATS)
Memphis coach Dave Joerger changed up the game plan in Game 3, zeroing in on everyone but Leonard and playing more physical. It worked, up to a point. For only the second time in the series they held a lead, eight times in fact; a 13-6 Spurs run in the fourth quarter crushed all hopes of an upset.

LaMarcus Aldridge was held to 16 points, while two others, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green, were the only other Spurs to drop double digits outside of Leonard with 11 a piece. More importantly, the Grizz established a presence in the paint, outscoring San Antonio 44-28 in the area and outrebounding them 48-39 on the glass.

Still, points are tough to come by for Memphis. Its 229 scored in the series are the fifth fewest entering a Game 4 in the postseason in the last 15 years. Moreover, the offense's 37.7 percent field goal rate ranks in the bottom 10 during this time.

Matt Barnes and Zach Randolph showed some life offensively after combining for 28 points total through the first two games. Barnes dropped 17 on 6 of 15 from the floor, while the veteran center netted 20 on 9 for 21 from the field.

Memphis is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games. The offense has scored more than the market predicts in just eight games during this stretch, five times at FedEx Forum.

 

Final Analysis
Memphis picked up 15 more offensive rebounds than the Spurs in Game 3, leading to an 18-1 edge in second-chance points. Don't expect as many extra looks tonight. Also, you can count on San Antonio having a better shooting night. It's 45.5 percent field goal percentage was the lowest versus the Grizzlies in seven meetings this season. The NBA Pick will be on the Spurs to sweep the series and cover the 12.5-point spread in the process. 

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Free NBA Pick:  Spurs -12½
Best Line Offered:  at Intertops

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