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NBA Playoff Series Odds: Bucks vs. Heat
As expected, the Heat are huge favoritesfor our NBA picks in this one, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in other places. Let’s take a look at some of the storylines surrounding this series and see if there is any value in the Game 1 NBA Odds for Sunday night.
Headlines There are only a few, but this series should at the very least be competitive. Although I think seeing the Heat blow them out in one or both of the next two games is likely, as long as Milwaukee shows up for Games 3 and 4, I think this series will have some drama. The Heat got to rest their key players down the stretch while the Bucks did too in some instances, so at least the teams are fresh and somewhat healthy.
The real concern out of Milwaukee is the health of Larry Sanders, who looks to have been legitimately sitting out the Bucks’ final few weeks with a back injury. As long as he is healthy, this series should be competitive, because Sanders is the only player on the Bucks who can play defense all four quarters. Monta Ellis flashes his sometimes, but I don’t think much of anything will help out the Bucks in this one.
A lot of pressure was lifted off of the Heat after they won the title last season, but it remains to bee seen if the pressure is what got them there. Now trying to defend their championship, they will have to dig even deeper to find the motivation to gut through the tough parts of the playoffs. They will be getting everyone’s best game every night, and if they are not ready, they could be faced with being overvalued.
Miami is an unreasonably large -6500 to win this series while the Bucks sit at +3500, which is almost what they are currently to win the NBA Title. In Game 1 of this series from Miami, the Heat are big -13 favorites, with a total of 199.
The Sharp Pick
Only if you’re crazy, do you see value in the NBA Series Odds, but I do think the Game 1 betting odds on both the spread and total have value. If the Heat go any higher than -13, I think a small value bet on the Bucks could be in order. I also really like the over in this game, as I think the Heat will throw down 115 with ease against the soft Bucks’ defense.
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