NBA Picks: Bucks vs. Bobcats
The Cats surprisingly lost another game last night, as they were all the way up in Detroit losing by 20 points.
The NBA Odds for this one were a little late coming out this morning, however they now sit favoring the road Bucks at -3 ½, with a total of just over 200 points. With both teams obviously tired, and the Bucks looking more likely to stay in the 8th seed, where should we even start with this game?
Bucks’ “Inury” report
I put quotations around injury because at this point of the season, and with the Bucks looking locked in as a playoff team, the random one-game absences of key players from Milwaukee recently shouldn’t be anything to be concerned about.
However we do need to take note of them if the happen tonight. Larry Sanders has missed the last two games and Brandon Jennings got the night off as well. Ersan Ilyasova came back last night and dropped 25 points in 28 minutes, but he had the night off before that with an illness.
The Bucks have five games remaining, while the Celtics have three, and Milwaukee already has 42 losses. They would almost have to run the table to even have a shot at moving out of Miami’s way in the first round, but I think they kind of want a shot at Miami. I really want to see them play in the first round.
The Bucks might just concede tonight and rest some players, so I think the spread is off limits, even though the 7th seed is still mathematically in reach for the Bucks, I can’t see them risking injury. They can beat Charlotte even if a Monta Ellis or someone else got the night off.
Charlotte, dining in or to go
When they play on the road like they did last night, even the Pistons can beat them by 20 points. However back at home, the Bobcats are a much better team. They don’t get much better defensively, but offensively they pick up the pace somewhat.
The Bobcats average a somewhat respectable 96 points per game average when playing at home this season, and while they still give up over 101 points per game at home, against teams like the Bucks, they have normally been able to stay in the game.
I’m tempted to recommend the Bobcats here depending on who is potentially out for Milwaukee. However I’m not that naïve. I believe the Bucks could easily beat Milwaukee on the road done a couple of starters potentially.
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The Sharp Pick
That leaves us in somewhat of a bind here, because I’m not seeing a great deal of value in this game all together. I’m siding with the over on the total, but there is a pretty big chance that one of these teams blows one tonight.
The good news is none of them play any defense, so I think scoring will be easy tonight. If indeed some of the Bucks sit out, Milwaukee is deep enough to recover and still score with their system on the Bobcats. The total is still low at 200, so take a modest stab at it this evening for your NBA picks.
My Pick: OVER 200 ½ at Bookmaker