NBA Picks: Bucks vs. 76ers

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, March 27, 2013 12:54 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 27, 2013 12:54 PM GMT

For the fourth time this season, the Bucks and Sixers will meet up. But, this time they’ll play in Philadelphia.


NBA Picks: Wednesday Total Play

The Sixers come into this game as slight one point favorites, but since my theme is fading NBA odds lines with low spreads and focusing on their totals, I’m more interested in the 197 point total between these two tonight.

The over is cashing well for the Sixers at home this season, as the books have routinely undervalued their home offense. The over has cashed in Philly 65% of the time this season, at 24-13. On top of that, the Bucks are not the greatest defensively, and on the road it gets worse.

Milwaukee is giving up well over 100 points per game on the road this season, and their own road scoring is pretty good as well around 95-96 points per game. Both teams have not been on their defensive games recently at all either, which is why I think the over is the play here tonight.

Milwaukee has given up an average of 106 points per game in their last 13 games overall, (all in the month of March) while the Sixers haven’t been that much better recently. Philadelphia has given up an average of 102 points per game in their last five games overall.

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[gameodds]5/222917/92-43-442-19-999996/us[/gameodds]

I have mentioned it several times in my picks for today and others, but these two teams are tiny, and smaller lineups lead to more points because the games quicken. You won’t see a lot of half court offense between these two tonight, which is why the over is the play. The over has cashed in two of these two’s last three games against one another, I think they make it three of four tonight. Neither team should have much trouble scoring on one another, and with the Sixers in tank mode, I think Doug Collins is lifting the pressure defensively. Let’s take advantage before the books start to notice. Take the over for this NBA pick.

My Pick: OVER 197 at Bet365

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