NBA Picks: Bucks Provide Big Betting Value at +5.5 vs. Grizzlies

Nikki Adams

Thursday, January 28, 2016 8:40 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016 8:40 PM UTC

The Bucks and Grizzlies collide in Thursday’s round of NBA action with the hosts favoured on the NBA odds board at -5.5 across sports betting platforms. Find out where the value NBA picks are to be had.

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NBA Pick: Bucks +5.5 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Milwaukee Bucks (20-27)
Milwaukee Bucks prop up the Central Division with a subpar 20-27 record, which also has them 13th in the Eastern Conference and well shy of a spot in the playoffs at this stage of the season. As a result, they enter this clash as the noteworthy +5.5 underdogs on the road, almost unanimously across sports betting platforms.

Odds makers initially went to press with a 5-point spread on this game, but the Bucks have trended negatively. A half-point increase isn’t alarming, but it suggests that the public is heavy on the home favorites – indeed, it appears that 62% of the spread tickets are on Memphis with mere hours to kick-off.

On the bright side, the Bucks are coming off a 107-100 win over Orlando, all while installed as the 5-point home chalk and cashing on the OVER 197. The win marked their second win in the last four games and fourth in their last six games. It also snapped a two-game losing streak, which included losses to Houston and New Orleans.

Overall, they are 6-4 in their last ten gams but 4-6 in their last ten away games. More recently, road form has improved to a 2-2 record.

Against the spread, Milwaukee are a healthy 24-22-1 for the season with a 4.6-point losing margin on average and a negative 1-point differential versus the spread. On the road, they are 13-14-0 ATS with a whopping 8-point losing margin and a negative 2-point differential versus the spread.


Memphis Grizzlies (26-20)
The Memphis Grizzlies boast a positive 26-20 record on the season, but it’s slightly undermined by a 2.2-point losing margin on average and a negative 3.4-point differential versus the spread. Speaking of spread betting, the Grizzlies are 21-24-1 at the sports betting window, which yields a 46.7% cover ratio. Ideally, a record above 50% or, even, around the 60% mark would make the Grizzlies a confident NBA pick in our books. However, the public doesn’t appear to be fazed one bit as they overwhelming betting appears to be on the hosts to cover in this game.

Recent form is auspicious though as the Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games, which includes five wins in their last six both home and away. Most recently, they are coming off a 108-102 win over Orlando and covering as the -5.5 favorites at home.

Where the Grizzlies cut a fine figure is at home with a 17-7 SU mark. Beating them at home is obviously not a straightforward task. That said they are just 12-12-0 ATS at home with a 0-9-point losing margin on average and a negative 4-point differential versus the spread. As home faves, they are 9-8-0 ATS with a 3-point winning margin on average and a negative 2.5-point differential versus the spread.

The Grizzlies are riding a four-game home winning streak which includes a 4.5-point winning margin, which comes just under the 5.5-point spread currently trading. Interestingly, a few of the close calls have come against lesser opponents such as Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans, a pair of games that combined for just a 1.5-point winning margin.


NBA Betting Verdict
At face value, the Memphis Grizzlies are by far the better team and the more likely to win straight up at home. Those looking to back the Grizzlies for the home win in straight up betting markets can do so with a measure of confidence, seeing as they boast a 14-3 SU record when dubbed the home favourite on the NBA betting floor. Best priced straight up win can be found at Pinnacle Sports at -208 NBA odds.

As far as the spread goes, the Grizzlies have been playing games rather too close for comfort. They haven’t exactly been blowing opponents off the court. The Bucks are coming off a win over Orlando, which can buoy their chances in this game. Granted there’s a gap between Orlando and Memphis in quality, but it’s not so huge to send the Bucks into this game without a measure of optimism. It’s a bit of a longshot NBA pick but we’re taking a chance on the underdogs to cover at +5.5 NBA odds.

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