NBA Picks: Blazers To Burn Strong Tonight Against Curry-less Warriors

Charles Stark

Saturday, May 7, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

Golden State will be without Curry again and the Blazers have been tough at home all season. With NBA odds making the Warriors a small road favorite is there any value on backing the home team?

The NBA Odds have the Portland Blazers a +3.5 underdog like at Pinnacle sports -108. For one of my NBA picks I'm going to back Portland at home because I believe they have a very good opportunity to win this game. Don't expect for same type of collapse they had at Golden State.


Portland Trail Blazers
In game two Portland shot 44.4% from the field and over 43% from distance but got outscored in the fourth quarter 34-12 by Golden State. This was a collapse of epic proportions because not only did they lose the game they didn't even cover the spread as a +10 underdog. Throughout the entire game Portland was leading and looking like the better team and shot very well from distance but when you're playing the best team in the league it is not very easy to close them out, especially in their arena.

Across the board statistically Portland was right with Golden State but they were nagged by 17 turnovers which led to 21 Warrior points. I predicted that CJ McCollum would have a much bigger game two and he did scoring 22 points but nobody on Portland could get anything going in the fourth quarter.

Still, again back to the statistics they were right with Golden State in almost every key category from assists 22-21, to rebounds 51-52, to fast break points 19-8. In fact if you just look at the stats of this game to and not the final score you'd be a bit surprised that Golden State won the game by as much as they did. Expect Portland to step things up tonight at home.

 

Golden State Warriors
In game two Golden State shot 46% from the field and 33% from distance while limiting themselves to just 10 turnovers. From around the middle of the third quarter I really thought Portland was going to pull off the upset and going into the fourth quarter I felt at worst they would cover the spread. However, Golden State at home is almost impossible to beat even without one of their superstars.

Tonight they will face a tough road contests and there is a good reason why odds makers have made this line so small. While Golden State was able to get up 91 attempts overall which is where their comfort zone is they were only able to put up 24 shots from beyond the arc which is well off their normal pace.

Conversely Portland was only able to get up 81 attempts total which was well-off their pace but they did get up 30 shots from distance which is a bit over their normal rate. I still believe without Stephen Curry Portland is arguably just as good as Golden State and I believe they will prove that tonight at home where, like Golden State, they are very difficult to beat themselves.

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Free NBA Pick:  Blazers +3.5 -108
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle