NBA Picks: Betting Value Found On Thunder +3 Against Trail Blazers

Jake Walker

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 5:17 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 6, 2016 5:17 PM GMT

The Oklahoma City Thunder (54-24) visit the Moda Center to face the Portland Trail Blazers (42-37). The Trail Blazers are favored by 3 points on the NBA odds board and the total is set at 218.

Oklahoma City Thunder 
The Oklahoma City Thunder have won two of their last three games, including last night's impressive 124-102 road win against the Denver Nuggets. Russell Westbrook became the first player since Magic Johnson in 1988-89 with 17 triple-doubles in a season after finishing with 13 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists and Kevin Durant had 26 points and eight assists.

The Thunder average 110.3 points per game (second in the league) and shoot 47.8 percent from the floor (third in the NBA) and 34.9 percent from three-point range and they pull down 48.5 rebounds per game (first in the league). Oklahoma City allows 102.9 points per game and their opponents shoot 43.9 percent overall (fifth in the NBA) and 34.1 percent from beyond the arc and grab 40.1 rebounds per game.

Kevin Durant leads the team with 28.1 points and 8.3 rebounds, Russell Westbrook averages 23.6 points and team-bests with 10.4 assists and 2.1 steals and Serge Ibaka adds 12.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and a team-best 1.9 blocks.

 

Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers have won five of their last six games and now their magic number to secure a playoff spot in the Western Conference is one. The Trail Blazers are coming off a huge 115-107 road win against the Kings behind 30 points, including five 3-pointers from C.J. McCollum and 22 points and eight assists from Damian Lillard. 

The Trail Blazers average 104.9 points per game (sixth in the league) on 44.9 percent shooting overall and 37.0 percent from beyond the arc (third in the NBA) and they grab 45.7 rebounds per game (fifth in the league). Defensively, Portland gives up 104.2 points per game and their opponents shoot 45.3 percent from the floor and 37.1 percent from three-point range and pull down 43.6 rebounds per game.

Damian Lillard leads the Trail Blazers with 25.2 points and 6.8 assists, C.J. McCollum averages 20.8 points and a team-best 1.2 steals and Allen Crabbe adds 10.1 points.  

 

Betting Trends
The Thunder are 14-13 ATS in the second half of the season, 7-7 ATS after a division game and 15-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.    

The Trail Blazers are 8-10 ATS when playing on back-to-back days, 8-5 ATS vs. division opponents and 19-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

 

Final Analysis
The Trail Blazers are a 3-point favorite on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 218. The betting trends might favor the Trail Blazers but the Thunder lead the season series 2-1, including 128-94 home win in their last meeting on March 14.

Also keep in mind that this could be a playoff matchup in the first round, so the Thunder can't let the Trail Blazers gain momentum.  I like the Thunder to make a statement against a tough opponent on the road. I'm taking Oklahoma City at a value price of +3 with one of my NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Thunder +3
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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