NBA Picks: Betting Trends & Statistic Analysis Suggest Clippers vs. Spurs to be a Low Scoring Affair

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, April 30, 2015 2:58 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 30, 2015 2:58 PM UTC

The LA Clippers and San Antonio Spurs return to Texas for their sixth game of the seven-game series. Will the Spurs clinch the series tonight or will the series go to the 7th game? Join us in this betting preview article to find where the best value NBA pick is. 

LA Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs (-5-) 9:35 ET TNT TV
At 9:35 ET tonight, as televised by TNT, the LA Clippers and San Antonio Spurs return to Texas for a continuation of their Round 1, seven game series. The Spurs lead the series 3 games to 2, following their (111-107) win at Staples Center on Tuesday night.  San Antonio is favored by a generous 5- points on the NBA odds with a posted total of 206 in the game. As you will read in the analysis below, I have a pair of selections in this contest. 

San Antonio won Game 5 of this series (111-107) in Los Angeles. The Clippers had a 14 point lead in the first quarter of Game 5.  But, with the clock winding down, LAC center, DeAndre Jordan, was called for offensive goal tending with 4 seconds remaining on the clock. It allowed San Antonio to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  

The pattern of this series certainly favors the visiting Clippers. Each team has won a game on the opponent’s home court. But, following those dominant road victories, they have each lost the next game.  Such a precedent is set for Game 6.  The stars shined brightly in that most recent contest.  For the LA Clippers, Griffin led the way with 30 points, 14 boards and 7 assists.  Paul had 19 points, 5 rebounds and 10 assists. Jordan contributed 21/14. For the Spurs, 6 players scored in double digits.  The big 3 led the way with Duncan logging 21/11 for the night, Ginobili 14 and Parker 13. Emerging star, Leonard, added 18/9.  Key factor was the bench play of the Spurs, who are widely acknowledged to have the best of it in that area.  Patty Mills was the leading reserve with 13 points.  But, the most dominant statistical numbers from that night revolve around 3 point shooting.  While the Spurs were knocking down 11 of 23 from behind the arc for 48%, LAC made just 1 of 14 for 7%.  And, the Clippers need to look no further than their 16 missed foul shots for the reason they lost this game.

For game 6, we have the better seeded Clippers team playing off a loss with elimination. Note that Class A, NBA road playoff teams, following a loss are a better than 70% winning proposition when taking more than 5 points.   

In addition, there is strong historical precedence for this contest to go UNDER the posted total. In Game 5, 6 or 7 of an NBA Playoff series between Class A teams, they have played UNDER the posted total over 70% of the time, including a trio of subsets to that mark that have over 80% pointspread success.  

NBA Pick: For your NBA picks, take LA Clippers plus the 5-points and UNDER 205- for your double play winner in this game.

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