NBA Picks: Betting Trends Point To Thunder & Spurs Going 'Over' 210.5

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, March 12, 2016 7:44 PM GMT

Saturday, Mar. 12, 2016 7:44 PM GMT

One of the star-studded games for Saturday evening is the Spurs playing host to the Thunder, in what could be a nice preview of an epic playoff battle. The Spurs come into this one an -8 favorite on the NBA odds board, with a total sitting at 210 points.

Thunder On The Back To Back
The Thunder come into this game after surprisingly getting beaten by the Wolves at home on Friday night, and now they are down a game they should have won coming into tonight as rather large underdogs on the NBA odds board. The Wolves are an up and coming team in the Western Conference, there is no doubt, but there is no reason the Thunder should have scored less than 100 points against this club.

Tonight however, the Thunder face an even more difficult challenge, and while their offensive meltdown last night is discouraging, it appears more people and even sharps feel the same way. The total for this game has dropped over three full points since it opened at 213 ½, and while the under might be a good play if the Thunder’s offense doesn’t show up again, their defense could easily give up a ton of points in this one too.

The Thunder are only 4-7 cashing the over this year on the season night of a back to back, but a lot of those under cashings were early in the season when playing on back to back nights doesn’t hurt a team as much as it does at this point in the season. Looking back on some of the Thunder’s most recent games on no rest tells the story better. The Thunder are 2-1 cashing the over in their last three games playing on no rest dating back to late January, and in those three games combined Oklahoma City gave up an average of more than 122 points.

Their back to back record on totals is also a bit misleading not only because they played a lot of them early in the season, but there is a big difference in the NBA of a home to road or road to road back to back, compared to being able to play on the second night of a back to back at home. In their last six games playing on the road on the second night of a back to back, the Thunder have cashed the over at 4-2, and I think they do it again tonight.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Spurs were on an under cashing streak of seven games before cashing the over in their last two contests, while the Thunder have cashed the over in just one out of their last five games overall However, the Spurs have been playing a lot on the road recently, and when these two teams hook up from San Antonio, the trends tell us to bet the over. The over has cashed at 5-2 in the last seven times these two teams have played one another from San Antonio dating back over the last three seasons. The over has also cashed NBA picks in three of their last four overall meetings dating back to last season.

While the Spurs do tend to play good defense at home, they also score the ball well at over 106 points per game. Considering the Thunder have been giving up about 122 per game on the back to back recently, the Spurs should have no issues scoring the ball tonight. The Thunder are no slouches either. They are averaging almost 112 points per game when playing on the road this season, and they are just over the .500 mark cashing the over at 16-14 in their 30 road contests this season, and they have cashed the over in eight of their last 12 road games.

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NBA Pick: OVER 210.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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