NBA Picks: Betting Trends & Odds Analysis Suggest Pelicans Get the 'W' Over Warriors

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, April 23, 2015 2:01 PM GMT

Tonight is game 3 of the Warriors vs. Pelicans playoff series. Are the Pelicans able to get a win tonight? Will the Warriors continue their winning streak? Find out here which team makes it to our NBA picks!

Golden St. Warriors (-5) vs. New Orleans Pelicans 9:30 ET TNT TV
At 9:30 ET as televised on TNT, Golden St. visits New Orleans for the continuation of their Round 1, best of 7 series.  The Warriors lead the series 2 games to none, following home court victories of 106-99 and 97-87, and are the favorites on the posted NBA odds.  

In Game 1, Golden St. led by 25 late in the 3rd quarter.  Following a “win and in” home court victory in Game 82 of the regular season, it would have been easy for the Pelicans to “toss the towel.” But, they battled back to within 4 points in the 4th quarter, before losing by 7.  The Game 2 victory by Golden St. was harder fought.  After scoring a combined 55 points in the opener, Splash Brothers, Curry and Thompson, combined for 48.  Draymond Green continued his fine season with 14 points, 12 boards and 5 assists.  For New Orleans, Antonio Davis had 26 points and 10 boards, after 35/7 in the opener. Tyreke Evans, who was questionable for Game 2, had 16 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. With Gordon adding 23, Jrue Holiday (who is questionable for tonight) was barely missed.  In that Game 2 victory, the Warriors recorded 27 assists, something that is quickly becoming a trademark.  Most troubling for Golden is that they are a combined 33-53 from the foul line in the 2 games.

Grow your bankroll with these two NBA ATS & Total picks!

Now, the venue switches to The Big Easy, where New Orleans had a 28-13 home record that equaled the road mark of the Warriors.  True enough, Golden St. has won 6 straight games.  But, a closer inspection of their log finds that all 6 of those wins have come at home.  More disturbing is the fact that they have failed to cover any of the last 5 of those.  Take note that the Warriors’ previous road game was on this same floor, when they lost 103-100 to New Orleans on April 7th. That victory will certainly give a quickly improving New Orleans team the confidence they need to get this victory. NBA playoff history is clearly in favor of Tourney Round 1, Game 3 home teams.  Much like Game 1 has been dominated by the home team and Game 2 by the road team, when the inferior team plays Game 3 on their home court, their pointspread success approaches 60%. That ATS history approaches 65%, if our home team has a won/loss percentage of greater than 52% as is the case with New Orleans.  The Pelicans have proven to themselves they are capable of playing with this team.  The outright victory is no surprise to this bureau by this home dog.

NBA Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +5 at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2835562, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,43,227,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]