Game 4 Will Go Over Because…
The Heat can’t figure out how to slow down the Spurs. San Antonio has now hit the 110-point mark twice in the series, and scored 96 in Game 2. They are creating matchup problems all over the court for the Heat, and Miami simply has no answers.
The Heat have been relying on Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen a lot more in this series, and while those guys provide offense, they are weak at the defensive end. The Spurs are so deep on the bench that they eventually find the mismatches that the Heat can’t handle. Miami can’t slow them down. Their best hope is to outscore them.
Game 4 Will Go Under Because…
The Spurs aren’t going to shoot lights out again. Let’s face it: the Spurs set an NBA finals record in Game 3 with their shooting percentage at half-time. They are not likely to do it again. The reason why Game 3 went over the number is because the Spurs had 71 points in the first half and the Heat’s defense was absolutely horrendous. Miami is a good defensive team that is likely to bounce back from that effort in Game 4. At home, look for them to figure out some defensive solutions and get the job done.
Outlook & Pick
The Spurs are so versatile on offense that it’s hard to project an 'under.' Unless the Heat start using more of guys like Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem, they won’t be able to slow down the Spurs. Expect this series to continue being a high-scoring one.
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