NBA Picks: Bet Streaking Maverick +3.5 Against League Best Warriors

Charles Stark

Wednesday, December 30, 2015 12:14 PM GMT

Whether or not Stephen Curry plays versus Dallas I think the Mavericks are good enough to make more of a game of this then people may anticipate. Check our free NBA pick inside.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks +3.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NBA odds have made Dallas a +8.5 home underdog in this spot and a total around 212 . All due respect to the Warriors I think this is just too many points for them to lay on the road against a Dallas team that matches up with them decently well. For one of my selections today I will take the Mavericks plus the points to hang in with the league's best team.

 

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is averaging 114.8 points per game while shooting 48.5% from the field, and allowing 101.4 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field. There might be good value on them simply for the fact that Curry might not play, and if the Warriors are smart and he is injured enough he probably should rest, as of now he is a game time decision. I'm basing this pick anticipating that he will play. Offensively there is not much to say about Golden State as they are the best offensive team across the board and rank number one in three point shooting percentage, two point shooting percentage, offensive scoring, and assists at 28.6 per contest. What is scary for the league is that not only are they unbelievably efficient offensively but they play great defense as well and rank third in the league in opponent three point percentage, and overall shooting percentage. That is something I think often gets left out when we discuss how great the Warriors are, but head coach Steve Kerr emphasized this aspect on last year's championship team and it has carried over to the season.

 

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is averaging 101.9 points per game while shooting 44.3% from the field, and allowing 101.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field. The Mavericks are on a nice little winning streak but they have had their own injury problems to deal with, specifically Deron Williams, who like Curry may or may not play tonight. Recently they have won three games in a row, and they're always tough to beat at home with their last three losses in Dallas being by a combined 10 points. Add in the fact they get the face the best team in the league and we should see their best effort on the year, and possibly pull the upset. Offensively Dallas has a similar makeup to Golden State but they're just not as talented insomuch as they like to shoot the three and play very unselfishly. They rank as one of the best teams in the league shooting 49.3% on their two point shots, and three pointers made per game at 9.5 per contest. Defensively they have been solid in limiting points in the paint and decent with opponents shooting 34.2% from distance. There is no doubt they have their hands full tonight on both ends of the floor but Rick Carlisle is an extremely good basketball coach, they have been playing well recently. I imagine this will be the most fired up they have been this season.

Going against Golden State is never an easy task, but it was a successful one the last time I went against them backing the Cavs. For one of your NBA picks I suggest backing the Mavericks plus the points at home to take this game to the buzzer and possibly, and as shockingly as it sounds, pull the upset.