NBA Picks: Bet Spurs To Cover ATS At Home In Big Test vs. Cavaliers

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, January 14, 2016 6:18 PM GMT

The San Antonio Spurs are a perfect 22-0 straight up at home with 16 double-digits wins, so look for them to make a statement vs. LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

 

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NBA Pick: Spurs -6½ 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

In one of the most marquee battle of this NBA season so far, we still give the edge to the favored home team Thursday night when LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers (27-9, 15-20-1 ATS) pay a visit to those San Antonio Spurs (34-6, 28-12 ATS) at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on the NBA on TNT.

The point spread at 5 Dimes has San Antonio as a decided home favorite for this contest with the current line at -6½ with odds of -108.

 

Possible NBA Finals Preview?
This game could potentially be an NBA Finals preview though the Golden State Warriors may have a say in that outcome. Still, these are the teams with the second and third best records in the NBA, and both enter this contest on prolonged winnings streaks. The Spurs have now been the winning NBA picks in nine straight games, and only the fact that they play in the same Western Conference as the 36-3 Warriors has allowed their 34-6 mark to go relatively unnoticed.

The Cavaliers meanwhile were the heavy -200 favorites to repeat as Eastern Conference Champs before the season, and they have not disappointed as they are currently the top seeds in the conference after extending their most recent winning streak to eight games with a 110-107 overtime win over the Mavericks in Dallas on Tuesday. This game marks the fifth game of a six-game road trip for Cleveland, a trip that wraps up Friday in Houston.

 

Nice Numbers on Both Ends
It is easy to see why the Spurs have such a great record, as besides being as potent offensively as they have been in recent years ranking sixth in the NBA in scoring with 103.8 points per game while leading the league in field goal percentage at 49.2 percent, San Antonio is also playing great defense this season leading the NBA in fewest points against at 89.7 per game while ranking third in field goal percentage allowed at 42.7 percent!

Keep in mind that the Spurs are doing this while playing in the stronger Western Conference, and they have been sensational here at the AT&T Center en route to their unblemished 22-0 mark, averaging a whopping 105.4 points on 49.4 percent shooting while allowing just 89.3 points and a 42.5 percent success rate from the field, resulting in 16 wins by double-digits.

And as if those raw number were in need of any validation, the Spurs simultaneously rank third in the league in offensive efficiency behind only the Warriors and Thunder while leading the league in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, grading out at a mere 93.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. To put that figure in perspective, the Indiana Pacers are nearly five points back in second at 98.1!

 

Once Favored to Win it All
Now, any team that boasts the greatest player on the planet in LeBron James cannot be taken lightly and remember that the Cavaliers were actually the favorites to win it all for a time before the Warriors got off to their unbelievable start.

And Cleveland is another team that grades out well on both sides of the ball, ranking 12th in scoring with 101.9 points per game and 11th in field goal percentage at 45.0 percent offensively, while ranking third in points against at 95.5 per game and 13th in field goal percentage allowed defensively. As fine as those rankings and numbers are however, they still mostly pale when compared to the Spurs’ numbers and that is with Cleveland playing in the weaker East.

Also, the Cavaliers take a noticeable dip offensively on the road where their scoring average goes down to 99.6 points per game on 44.1 percent shooting. On top of all this, Cleveland lags behind San Antonio in efficiency although the Cavaliers are closer in offensive efficiency ranking fourth. However, the Cavaliers are fifth in defensive efficiency, where their 99.4 points per 100 possessions allowed trails the Spurs by nearly six full points.

 

Spurs Have Had Cavaliers’ Number
Finally, the Spurs have had nice success vs. the Cavaliers going 9-3 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head meetings and the favorites have gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 occurrences of this series. Also, the Spurs are a sensational 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games and 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games overall, while the often overvalued Cavaliers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.

Given that the Spurs remain perfect at home and have better overall numbers in both ends of the court, look for San Antonio to be the team making the statement with a safe covering win hosting Cleveland.