NBA Picks: Bet Spurs +7 vs. Heat in Game 6

Jeff Grant

Monday, June 17, 2013 2:38 PM GMT

The Miami Heat have won all six of their games following a straight-up loss in the postseason, as they continue their best-of-seven series against the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday night. 


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA betting odds for Game 6 of the 2013 NBA Finals at AmericanAirlines Arena, with the opening tip scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. 

One win away 

San Antonio owns a 3-2 advantage in this series after picking up a 114-104 victory over Miami as one-point home underdogs in Game 5 Sunday night, while going OVER the betting total for a third consecutive contest. 

The Spurs are 14-6 straight up (SU) and 11-9 against the spread (ATS) when leading in a playoff series the last two-plus seasons—needing just one more win to capture their fifth NBA title

On the brink

A majority of the betting public will likely back Miami on the money line in this affair, considering the defending champions are 6-0 SU following a loss during the 2013 NBA playoffs—winning those games by an average of 20.7 points. 

The Heat are 17-3 SU and 13-7 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points since the start of the 2012-13 regular season.

A negative trend 

It’s important to point out that the Spurs are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two-plus seasons, but many of those occurrences came when coach Gregg Popovich elected to rest Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

In my opinion, I believe San Antonio will win this series if Parker continues to play at a high level despite a hamstring injury he suffered a few games back, as he finished with a game-high 26 points last time out.

Past performances 

The Heat were five-point home favorites when they were eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 of the 2011 NBA Finals, which can’t be overlooked in terms of sports betting value.

Miami’s Big Three of Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will be under a lot of pressure to force this series to the limit—something that could have a negative impact on their performance against a savvy team.

[gameodds]5/238036/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Spurs as their NBA picks Tuesday, but I suggest waiting to see if a 7.5 will pop on the SBR odds page between now and the opening tip. 

San Antonio has closed all three of its playoff series on the road to this point—eliminating its opponent in the first opportunity—a trend that could definitely continue. 

NBA Pick:  San Antonio Spurs +7