The NBA Odds are giving the Spurs +6 points, with a total of 189 ½. Are we going to see another collapse after a close game, or will one of these teams seize the moment and run away with the game?
I have never seen a team so close to a title only to blow it like the Spurs did in Game 6. Turnovers from the whole team and especially Manu Ginobli, the missed free throws, and the several questionable calls by Gregg Popovich down the stretch and in overtime led to the defeat. All of these can be blamed for the Spurs loss, but with how this series has gone, can we really trust the Heat to win two games in a row?
I’m not sure, but I am sure that like Game 5 and especially Game 6, the Spurs are undervalued here at +6. I think this will be a very close game down the stretch, and I also see it ending at a maximum of two-possessions at the end of the game. The back and forth nature of this series puts the pressure on Miami in this spot, even though they have the momentum.
All the Spurs have to do in this game is come out firing like they did in Game 6. We already know that Miami doesn’t have real fans anyway after last night’s showing, so if the Spurs can get the crowd out of the game, I like their chances of covering. Ginobli and Tony Parker will play better, and if Lebron James has only one good quarter again, this game is over. Dywane Wade didn’t have a great game, (6-15) and as long as one of the Spurs’ big three have a great game, they will cover this spread. The Heat need two of their big three to show up in order to get a win.
Check out our NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Heat in Game 7 for a free 1st half play.
Spurs ATS dominance
Both the Spurs and myself have two wins ATS in the last two Finals games, and I see no reason why we can’t go three in a row. The Heat may win the game again, but we will cash our tickets. The Spurs are 4-2 ATS in this series, and they are 14-6 ATS overall in these playoffs, while the Heat are only 11-11 ATS this postseason.
The Sharp Pick
I am not too worried about the Spurs’ legs in Game 7. The adrenaline will take over when they get tired. The total dropping in this one also gives me assurance that the Spurs +6 is the play. The total opened at 191 and dropped two points almost instantly because of under bets. The under normally leads to closer games.
If you tack on the fact that the Heat have traded wins for losses since back in the Indiana series, it doesn’t give me any reason to like the Heat to even win the game. The Heat are 0-6 ATS and SU after a SU win since the Indiana series, and they are 3-8 ATS in these playoffs following a SU win. I’m taking the points, and putting a small bet on the Spurs’ moneyline. They will not blow two games in a row, and I don’t think the Heat’s performance in Game 6 gives us any reason to think they will run away with this game like some are suggesting.
My NBA Pick: Spurs +6