In now what has become a three game series, the Spurs come into this game as slight betting underdogs in the NBA Odds, at +1 ½, with atotal of 188. Are the sportsbooks looking too much into the Heat’s Game 4 performance, or will Miami hit the turbo boosters one more time?
Turbo might be out of juice
To constantly play with your opponents is a dangerous thing. Now facing a pivotal Game 5 in someone else’s building, the Heat are faced with an uphill climb. They either have to beat the Spurs twice in a row on their home court, or they have to win two games in a row at home against the Spurs, a team that hasn’t lost back-to-back games in a longer period than the Heat.
You can get even money with the Spurs here tonight on the spread, and up to +110 on the moneyline. Even though they lost Game 4, the Spurs are still 13-3 SU against the Heat in San Antonio. The Spurs have not lost back-to-back games since 2012, and I doubt they start tonight. As long as they fix their turnovers on offense, they will take command of this series. The Heat have only won the games in this series where the Spurs played badly, while San Antonio has won a game already in this series in which they played badly.
Dwyane Wade will not have another performance like he did in Game 4, and seeing as the Heat aren’t up against the wall, I can’t see them playing with the same ferocity, and that will eventually be their downfall in Game 5, and possibly the series.
The Sharp Pick
San Antonio will fix their offense and their turnovers in this game, and I see them winning and covering in this game. Because the books are giving us value on the spread, I think we have to take the Spurs as home underdogs. The Spurs have the best ATS record of any team since 2003 as home underdogs, as they have covered in over 70% of those games.
This season, the Spurs are 16-11 ATS after a SU loss, and 12-6 ATS with two days rest this season. They are 15-3 SU after two days rest, and they are 22-5 SU after a SU loss. I’m on the Spurs this evening for my NBA picks. As long as Tony Parker’s hamstring doesn’t snap in two pieces during the game, I see the Spurs coming away with a victory. Manu Ginobli will show up in this series when the Spurs need him the most, and the roll players for the Spurs will once again be the difference. Miami will not have 13 steals on 18 turnovers from the Spurs again.
My Pick: Spurs +1.5 @ BET 365