NBA Picks: Bet Rockets To Win (-305) & Cover -7 vs. Jazz

Nikki Adams

Thursday, January 7, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

The Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets collide in Thursday’s round of NBA betting with the hosts considerably favored on the NBA odds board. Where are the value NBA picks?

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882997, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NBA Picks: Rockets to win at -305 at 5Dimes; Rockets to cover -7 (-105) at Heritage

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes & Heritage


Utah Jazz (15-19, 5-11 Away)
Going into tonight’s Western Conference showdown, the Utah Jazz are sat eighth in the conference with a 15-19 mark, which includes a 10-8 mark at home but a rather subpar 5-11 mark on the road. As a consequence, they enter this game as the considerable underdogs, trading at +265 NBA odds to win straight up and as the 7 or 7.5-point road underdogs versus the spread.

Most recently, Utah are riding a two-game losing streak into Thursday Night’s clash in Houston; they are just 5-5 in their last ten games. Conspicuously, this run of form includes a loss to the Rockets at home, a 93-91 that saw them cover as the 3.5-point home underdogs.

NBA betting lines opened as high as 9-points at some books but since the betting windows opened the line was bet down to 7.5-points or, even, as low as 7-points (Heritage). This move towards the Utah Jazz on the NBA odds board could have something to do with the most recent meeting between this pair, as well as the Houston Rockets and their struggles versus the spread. As it is, they are bottom of the league with a 13-23 ATS mark ahead of tonight’s clash with Utah, which includes a -1.9-point losing margin and a negative 4-point differential versus the spread.

Most concerning of all, though, is the fact that the Jazz are winless on the rod in their last six games, with losses to the Kings (114-106), Thunder (94-90), Spurs (118-81), Warriors (103-85), Timberwolves (94-80) and Spurs (123-98). That run of poor form includes a 17.7-point margin of defeat on average. Yikes.

To be fair, though, Utah Jazz are only 18-16 ATS on the season with a 0.9-point losing margin on average and a plus 0.1-point differential versus the spread. So hardly a ringing endorsement of their performance on the NFL betting floor. Taking it a step further, Utah are 8-8 ATS on the road with a 3.9-point losing margin on average and a plus 0.1-point differential against the spread. As road underdogs, they are 6-6 ATS with a considerable 7.4-point losing margin and a negative 0.9-point differential versus the spread.


Houston Rockets (17-19, 10-9 Home)
The Rockets are sat 7th in the Western Conference ahead of their clash with the Utah Jazz on a 17-19 mark, which includes a so-so 10-9 mark at home and a 7-10 mark on the road. Where the Rockets have flattered to deceive with increasing frequency is against the spread. As mentioned above, they currently prop up the league with a lowly 13-23 ATS mark, which amounts to just a 36.1% success rate versus the spread. In other words, they are a risky NBA pick.

The Rockets at home boast 7-12 ATS mark that includes a 1-point losing margin and negative 5.4-point differential against the spread; as home favorites, the stats are less encouraging with a 4-11 ATS mark that includes a -1.2-point losing margin and a negative 7.7-point differential against the spread.

The Rockets recently snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Utah Jazz on the road, coming through for NBA bettors as the -150 road faves (or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice) in straight up betting but failing to cover as the 3.5-point road faves. In fact, the Rockets have failed to cover in their last five straight games.


NBA Betting Verdict
By the numbers, the Rockets do have the look of the smart NBA pick at home to win their second straight meeting with the Jazz. The Jazz will be desperate to snap a six-game losing skid, but coming off the brutal loss to the Spurs might put them at a slight disadvantage here. It’s not entirely out of the question for the Jazz to mastermind the upset, but we’re backing the Rockets at home to win a close one.

As far as spread betting goes, there’s very little to encourage a sound NBA pick either way. Neither team cuts a particularly convincing pose versus the spread, which makes this one a tossup. Seeing as the Jazz lost last night to the Spurs and are playing their third game in the last four games, one more than the Rockets, the hosts should be better rested and the fresher team, which has us thinking this could be prove deciding towards the home cover.

comment here