NBA Picks: Bet Pistons Plus Odds To Keep It Close Against Warriors

Charles Stark

Saturday, January 16, 2016 1:25 PM GMT

We've had some decent success going against the Golden State Warriors the past two years by grabbing the points against them, today they will visit the Pistons, who will be our NBA pick?

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Pistons +7
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Warriors vs. Pistons
NBA Odds makers have come out making Detroit a +6 underdog and the total around 214. Although the Pistons have lost their last two games I look for them to be naturally fired up to face the Warriors. This is an interesting number considering Detroit just lost the San Antonio at home earlier in the week by 10. For my selection I will grab the points with fundamentally sound Detroit team.

 

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is averaging 114.3 points per game while shooting 48.8% the field and allowing 102.5 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field. On the season they have been an amazing 24-15-1 overall and 14-6-1 on away games against the spread, and this really gets my radar up considering this line looks a little bit low. Usually when that is the case I like to go with the odds makers, and in this spot with Cleveland coming up next, I believe that puts some value on a good Detroit team. Offensively there is not much to say as they are the best in the league. For example, they rank first in shooting efficiency, field goals made per game, effective field-goal percentage, and three point percentage. Defensively is what I like to talk about when it comes to Golden State, and it seems like they're finally starting to get some real recognition for how well they play on this side of the ball. Most people probably don't realize, that although they allow tempo, statistically they're one of the best teams in the league across the board. The Warriors rank first in opponent three point shooting percentage, third in opponent shooting efficiency, and third in opponent effective field-goal percentage. They also rank second in opponent shooting percentage from the field, and their only weakness would be the points in the paint that they allow per game, which ranks second to last in the league. Obviously that weakness has not led to many losses, but I like going against them tonight grabbing the points because I think Detroit can take advantage of this with Andre Drummond. As well, although Golden State has one of the most professional demeanors, I don't think their immune to checking the schedule and seeing that they travel to Cleveland in their next matchup.

 

Detroit Pistons
Detroit is averaging 101.2 points per game while shooting 43% from the field, and allowing 99.3 points per  game on 45.4% shooting from the field. On the season, like the Warriors, they have been good going 21-16-2 overall and 13-5-1 at home against the spread. Offensively they have been less than stellar but they make up for their low percentages by how much they push the pace. As an example although they rank as one of the lower shooting percentage teams in the league, they do however average 88.3 field goals attempts which ranks second, and making 37.9 of those per game which ranks 11th. With Stan Van Gundy you know Detroit will shoot the three as well, which they do averaging 26.3 attempts from beyond the arc ranking ninth, and making 8.9 of those per game which ranks 10th. The point of contention tonight should be in the paint though where Golden State is a bit vulnerable as the Pistons average 44.6 points in that area per game which ranks seventh in the league. Defensively the Pistons are better than average and should be sufficient enough on this end to hang in with the number tonight. Detroit ranks in the top 10 on this side of the ball in opponent assists per game and opponent shooting efficiency. They also defend the perimeter as good as anybody allowing just 20 three point attempts per game which ranks second in the league, allowing 6.8 of those to drop which ranks third, along with a 33.9% opponent three point shooting percentage which ranks ninth. This will be crucial against the unreal Stephen Curry and the equally deadly at times Klay Thompson.

The line on this at first glance seems a little bit low, but with the way the situation sets up I believe this is a good spot for Detroit to hang in with Golden State. Detroit defends the perimeter well, can score in the paint, and are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. With Golden State perhaps looking ahead to Cleveland I recommend backing the Pistons plus the points as one of your NBA picks to take this game to the final minutes.