NBA Picks: Bet 'Over' in Pacers vs. Heat Game 7

Jordan Sharp

Monday, June 3, 2013 12:14 PM GMT

Find out why we believe that the total holds the best value for our NBA picks in tonight's Game 7 matchup between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers.


Few times in sports do we get the opportunity to enjoy a Game 7, and tonight we will have that pleasure once again, this time in the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA. Where should we go with our NBA Picks for tonight’s win or go home game between the Pacers and Heat? 

The NBA Odds favor Miami in this one at -7, and the total has shrunk after the last two games, and it sits right at 180 points. Can Miami do again what they did in Game 5, or will the Pacers keep this game close, or even steal it out from under Miami? 

[gameodds]5/236664/43/us[/gameodds]

The Heat did not look good in Game 6. There is no denying that. This team has never been a road warrior in the playoffs, despite having a solid season ATS in 2013 on the road. I feel like this line is begging me to take the points with Indiana, but I cannot do it. The Heat are too good at home and the Pacers have shown their weakness in turning the ball over in this series. While I don’t see a lot of value in the spread for this game, I like the total, which has dropped over the last two games, and now sits at 180. 

After two straight games where the total went well under, the books have dropped the total a full 5 ½ points from where it was in Game 5, and I think that is giving us an opening. Even though the last two games saw each team score in the 70s one time apiece, that will likely not happen tonight, especially from Miami. Remember before the last two games went under, the first four games of this series went over the total, as well as the last two of the regular season, to make six of the last eight games between these two going over. 

The 'over' is a much safer choice for our sports picks this evening. I doubt we will see any apathetic play from Miami like in the last game, and I also doubt the Pacers don’t show up like they did in Game 5. Plus the sportsbooks have given us a window by dropping the total down to only 180 points. Both teams have cashed the over in five of their last seven playoff games, and for Indiana, four out of their last six road playoff games have gone over. 

On top of all that four out of the last five times these two teams have met from Miami, (three in this series and two in the regular season) the total has gone over. The one under being the recent Game 5 when the Heat held the Pacers to under 80 points for the game. 

As I mentioned above, I don’t think that is what will happen tonight. In the three games in Miami so far in this series, the Heat have averaged about 95 points per game. I see that and maybe even some more tonight for the Heat. Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh will not play as bad as they did in Game 6, and even if they do, the Pacers have shown their ability to let go of games late with turnovers and bad shots. That will only help a seemingly struggling Miami offense. Even though I think Indiana might cover, I see a score of about 97-92 in favor of Miami in this Game 7, making the over a great value. 

The Sharp Pick: OVER 180 at Bet365