NBA Picks: Bet 'Over' In Highscoring Match Up Between Bucks vs. Bulls

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 7, 2016 3:41 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 7, 2016 3:41 PM UTC

The NBA Odds makers have the Bulls as -7 favorites in this one, with a total of 206 ½. Will Milwaukee stay with Chicago, or will the Bulls use their newfound health to cover the spread tonight?

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls
The Bulls got back some much needed depth over the weekend, as Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic made their way back for the Bulls. Both players have missed the better part of last month with their injuries, and it not only killed the Bulls’ depth, but it really dampened their playoff seeding as well. However, now with both players back for tonight’s game, it looks as if Chicago is poised to try and make one last run up the playoff standings in hope of getting above the 8th seed and avoid the first round matchup with the Cavaliers.

Another big injury for tonight is to Michael Carter-Williams, who has yet to practice with the team since injuring his knee, and while he has yet to be ruled out for the game tonight in Chicago, if he hasn’t practiced I find it hard to believe that he will be able to play tonight. This spells good news for the Bulls’ Derrick Rose. Carter-Williams is one of the better defenders at the point guard position in the league, and if he ends up sitting out again tonight, Rose should have room to get to the basket against Jerryd Bayless. Along with Butler being back and taking advantage of a plus matchup from the shooting guard position, the Bulls look like they could be a pretty good play at home tonight.

However, even though these two teams have split their season series so far this year, each winning their loan home game against one another, the Bucks have played the Bulls well over the years, including in last season’s first round playoff matchup. This is just one of the reasons I am laying off the spread tonight in my NBA pick, and instead going with a play on the total of 206 ½.


The Sharp Pick
For some reason, the sharps have been pushing down this total since it opened on the NBA odds boards at 208, and now it’s down to 206 ½ at several sportsbooks. However, I think the sharps have this one wrong. These two teams have cashed the over against one another in both their meetings this season, and the fact that Carter-Williams looks more doubtful that questionable could lead to Rose having a vintage performance tonight at home.

The Bucks have been anything but good on defense as of late, giving up almost 107 points per game in their last eight contests, and if you take away their low scoring game against the slow paced and defensive-minded Jazz, the Bucks have given up nearly 109 points per game in five of their last six road games. The Bulls have been pretty bad on defense at home recently as well, and the return of Butler likely won’t help that too much tonight. Chicago is giving up 107 points per game in their last six home games, and they have cashed the over in three of their last five home games. Despite Butler being back and helping on the defensive end, look for the over to be the play tonight. Be sure to also check out tonight's other top value plays to win big. 

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NBA Pick: Over 209.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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