A night after getting waxed by the best team and best player in the NBA, the Nets head out on the road for another tough game, this one in Indianapolis to play the Pacers. Will the Nets turn things around despite being on the back to back, or will the Pacers continue their stellar home play, of which they have only lost two games SU all season?
Slim Reaper cuts Nets
Kevin Durant and the Thunder shredded the Nets so much that the starters didn’t even have to play in the 4th quarter, however that might have helped the Nets tonight on short rest. Heading into Indiana isn’t going to be an easy task, as the Pacers lead the league in not only home record, but home defense as well.
Brooklyn hasn’t been bad playing on no rest this season, but they haven’t been very good either at 4-5 ATS. This older team is going to start falling off on their 2nd game in as many nights as the season goes on. Tonight might be one of those nights, especially if the Pacers can crack the Nets’ defense.
However the NBA Odds for the spread are much too inflated for my liking. The total however seems to be overvaluing both teams’ offenses right now at 189 ½, and I could see the total going under in this defensive game.
The Nets have been playing much better on the defensive end of the floor over the month of January, and obviously the Pacers are the best defensive team in the NBA. If this game is as slow and hard-hitting as I think it’s going to be, then 189 ½ is a bit too high tonight.
The Sharp Pick
This is the fourth time these two teams have played one another this season. All three of the previous matchups this season were won by Indiana, both SU and ATS. Furthermore, the total sportsbooks had set went under in two of the three games, and I see another under cash tonight. Brooklyn has scored no more than 91 points against the Pacers this season, and off the back to back, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see their scoring average against the Pacers dip after tonight.
Brooklyn has cashed the under in five of their last six road games, and at home this season, the Pacers are 16-7 cashing the under. Overall, five of the last eight times these two teams have met, the total has gone under, and with Indiana’s opponents averaging only 84 points per game at the Fieldhouse this season, the Nets are going to have a really hard time cracking 90.
Assuming the Nets finish somewhere in the 87 point range, that would mean the Pacers would have to score in the 100s for the total to go over, and I don’t think even the back to back will prevent the Nets from holding Indiana under 100 points. At home this season, the Pacers are averaging well under 100 points per game, and I don’t think the Nets’ defense will let them get there. Brooklyn is giving up only 97 points per game in their last ten games. We'll count on the low scoring game for our NBA pick.
My Pick: UNDER 189 ½