NBA Picks: Bet Mavericks vs. Knicks to go Over

Darin Zank

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 2:50 PM GMT

New York recently experienced a 10-game losing streak, but as the oddsmakers adjusted their lines, the Knicks have gone 5-2 ATS over their last seven outings. New York is a home dog for Tuesday night's date with the Dallas Mavericks at the Garden.

 

Mavs-Knicks Betting Odds
Most NBA odds we checked with opened Dallas at right around -7 for this game, with the total posted at 204. And while the spread was holding steady in the early betting, the total was dropping to the 202 range. Also, those who think New York might pull the upset here could get +290 on the moneyline at SBR Sportsbook.


Mavs-Knicks: The Match-Up
New York went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 41; at 5-21 it would take a minor miracle for the Knicks to play OVER that total.

New York just went through a 10-game losing streak, before winning at Boston last Friday 101-95. The Knicks then came home and lost to Eastern Conference-leading Toronto Sunday night 95-90 in overtime. So they've actually posted two decent performances in a row, and low and behold, they've covered two spreads in a row.

New York shot just 37 percent from the field Sunday, but made nine 3-pointers and 23 of 28 free-throws. The Knicks then went dead-cold in the overtime period, scoring four points.

Dallas went off this season with a wins betting total of 50. At 17-8 the Mavericks are on pace to win 56 games, but that record is still only good enough for a tie for sixth place in the stacked Western Conference.

Dallas is just 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS over its last five games, despite playing four of those games at home. Eleven days ago the Mavs lost at home to Phoenix, then trounced Milwaukee, then lost 114-105 at Memphis. The Mavs then came back home and beat New Orleans 112-107, but Saturday night they lost to West-leading Golden State 105-98. The Mavericks fell down by 21 after one quarter against the Warriors, and it took them all game to get within 100-92 in the final moments, before throwing in the towel.


Mavs-Knicks Recent History
Dallas took the first meeting between these teams this season three weeks ago on its home court 109-102 in overtime, but New York covered as a two-touchdown dog. The Knicks trailed by a bucket late but JR Smith tossed one in with a second to go to force OT.

For the game New York outshot the Mavericks 42 percent to 40 percent, and made 14 of 28 shots from 3-point range, but also shot just 10-for-16 from the line and committed 22 turnovers, to Dallas' 12. That game, which was tied at 95 through regulation, would have played UNDER its total of 201, if not for the overtime period. That game is one of two this season New York has lost in OT; it's also lost nine other games by five points or less. Carmelo Anthony missed that game for New York, while Dallas played without its top two point guards.

Last season these teams split their two meetings, each winning on the other's home court. And New York covered both those games, so the Knicks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Mavericks.


Mavs-Knicks – Key Numbers
Dallas leads the league in scoring at 110 points per game, ranks third in FG shooting at 48 percent and 21st in FG defense, allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent. The Mavs also rank eighth in assists at 23 per game, and third-best in turnovers at 11 per game.

New York ranks 19th in FG shooting at 45 percent, 14th in FG defense at 45 percent, fourth in FT shooting at 79 percent, and ranks right around middle-of-the-road with 21 assists and 14 turnovers per game.


Mavs-Knicks Betting Trends
Dallas has trended toward the OVERS this season by a 15-10 margin, as Mavs games have averaged 213 points. In fact, the Mavs are 7-1 on the totals over their last eight games, in part because they’ve allowed at least 102 points in 11 straight games.

New York is 13-12 on the totals, as Knicks games have averaged 193 points.
Dallas is 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS on the road this season.
New York is 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS at home, and 3-5 ATS as a home dog.


Injury Update
New York is already playing without G Iman Shumpert (nine PPG), who's down with a shoulder injury, and JR Smith (10 PPG) has missed recent action with a foot injury. The Knicks are a little shorthanded at the moment. Dallas, meanwhile, could be without F Chandler Parsons (16 points, five boards per game), who missed Saturday's game with a sore back.


Mavs-Knicks Free Pick
Dallas is likely to win this game, but New York might be a bit underrated on the spread. The Knicks have lost a bunch of close games this year, and could cover that line. So instead of looking at a side for our free NBA pick,

Free NBA Pick: we'll try the total and go with the OVER 201.5 at 5Dimes.

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