NBA Picks: Bet Mavericks & 'Over' Tonight vs. Struggling Kings

Kevin Stott

Thursday, March 3, 2016 3:37 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 3, 2016 3:37 PM UTC

Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks welcome DeMarcus Cousins and the Sacramento Kings to American Airlines Arena in Dallas on Thursday night. Let's review the NBA odds now!

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
DeMarcus Cousins and the Sacramento Kings (24-34 SU, 10-18 SU Away) head to Dallas and the American Airlines Center to face Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks (33-28 SU, 19-12 SU Home) on Thursday night in the third of four Regular Season meetings between these two teams. NBA odds makers have made the Mavericks 7-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) in this one with the Total (Points) set at 220 (Pinnacle). The Money Line odds see Dallas priced at -350 (Pinnacle) with the visiting Kings lined at +305 on the takeback. The Sacramento Kings Team Total Points has been set at 106½ (BetVictor) with the Dallas Mavericks Total Points at 113½ (BetVictor) while the 1st Half odds see the Mavericks as 4½-point favorites (-105, Winner) with the 1st Half Total set at 112½ (Ladbrokes).


Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings (25-33-0 ATS, 13-15 ATS Road) and Head Coach George Karl started Wednesday off in 10th place in the Western Conference, 4 games off the 8th-place Houston Rockets (29-31) and this meeting with Dallas on Thursday will be the first of back-to-back Road nights with the Kings in Memphis on Wednesday to battle the Grizzlies (MEM -5, 214, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) while Dallas will have gotten the night off. In their last game before Wednesday, Sacramento and DeMarcus Cousins (27.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg) on Monday night at Home in Sactown, the Kings were defeated by Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder, 131-116 as Sacramento fell to its 3rd straight Loss (OKC -8½, 227½, Over). As per usual, the Kings were led in scoring by starting C Cousins (35 points) with reserve SF Omri Casspi (16 points), SG Ben McLemore (15 points), reserve PG Darren Collison (12 points), PG Rajon Rondo (11 points, 12 assists) and SF Quincy Acy (10 points) all in double-digit scoring in the shootout. Sacramento (31-26-1 Overs) received scoring from all 10 players who played against the Thunder, but despite all the necessary production, the visitors outscored the hosts in every Quarter. Sacramento (1,000/1 to win NBA Championship, Betfred) does have its share of Injury concerns heading into this game with PG Rondo (Thumb) and C Cousins (Ankle) listed as Probable for Wednesday’s game at Memphis while SF Rudy Gay (Shoulder, Doubtful) and SG Seth Curry (Foot) listed as Questionable and PF Eric Moreland (Foot) is Out Indefinitely. Another source has Gay as Doubtful (for Thursday), so bettors should keep that in mind.


Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks (34-26-1 ATS, 20-11-0 ATS Home) and Head Coach Rick Carlisle have W3 straight now and climbed back up into 6th place in the Western Conference, 5 games above .500 and 2½ games ahead of 8th place heading into Wednesday’s action, in which Dallas had the night off (Dallas on 1 Day Rest: 21-13-1 ATS). In their last game on Tuesday, the Mavericks (150/1 to win NBA title, Ladbrokes) sawed the Orlando Magic in half, 121-108 in Dallas as the hosts got the Point Spread cover (DAL -4½) and the game went Over the posted Total (214½), and from looking at averages from previous assignments, like most NBA teams, the scoring averages for (AF) and against (AA) are rising. And for those paying close attention, it was the Mavericks 9th straight Over. In the win Dallas was led by SG Wesley Matthews (21 points), future Hall of Famer F Dirk Nowitzki (19 points), C Zaza Pachulia (17 points), Chandler Parsons (17 points) and reserve PG JJ Barea (17 points). The Mavericks (102.5 AF-102.4 AA)—a member of the rough-and-tumble Southwest Division along with the San Antonio Spurs—also got 7-point scoring nights from starting PG Deron Williams, reserve G Devin Harris and F David Lee and Dallas (31-29-1 Over) heads into this game pretty healthy and with no Injuries to report.


Recent Relevant (and Some Irreleveant) Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Picks
The L10 meetings in this series has seen the Pacific Division’s Sacramento Kings earn an impressive 7-3 ATS mark, including 2 straight and 3 of the l4 against the number despite Dallas being 8-2 SU in the series. So the Doctor says the oddsmaker usually gives the Kings too many points of late and he is right. The Under is a surprising 7-3 ATS in this series despite the fact at least one team has scored at least 100 points in 9 of these 10 meetings, all in the Regular Season, with the Under winning 7 straight in this series before the last meeting in Dallas in early January—which went to Overtime—finally went Over by 10½ points because of the extra period. But the strong lean here is the Over, not only because of Dallas’s run of 9 straight Overs, but also because the Kings will be tired from playing (and traveling) the night before and because the host Mavericks can get scoring from so many places and are a better team than a year ago despite suffering an Injury glut at one point. Another reason to lean Over is that Sacramento (107.2 AF-109.6 AA) allows the most points in the NBA and the Mavericks have an ABA mentality and should put up 120 or more because of all of these circumstances.

Trend-wise, the Over is also 8-1 ATS in the L9 Kings games but the Under is 7-1 in the L8 Mavericks games played on a Thursday, the Under is 6-2 ATS in the L8 Dallas games against the Pacific Division and, as mentioned, the Under is 7-1 in the L8 meetings in this series. Despite the fact Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in the L9 meetings in this series, the Kings are a weak 1-7 ATS in their L8 on the Road and 3-12 ATS in their L15 overall (20%). With Rondo (Probable) returning to Big D to face his old teammates, Mavericks Owner Mark Cuban will be reminded why having former Trail Blazer Wes Matthews and not Rondo in his backcourt was the right move for the franchise. This game may resemble a cross between a great Wildebeest crossing and the 2016 NBA All-Star Game with much movement everywhere and little Defense being played. Take Dallas and Over as the sharp NBA picks tonight.

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Final Score Prediction: Mavericks 123 Kings 111
NBA Picks: Mavericks -7.5  & Over 219.5
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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