NBA Picks: Bet Heat At Value Price of +4.5 Against Celtics

Jake Walker

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 5:01 PM GMT

The Miami Heat (48-33) travel to the TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics (47-34). The Celtics are favored by 4.5 points on the NBA odds board and the total is set at 204.5.

Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have won two straight games as they continue their battle for third place in the Eastern Conference with the Hawks, Celtics and Hornets. Miami beat Detroit 99-93 on the road last night and they're now one win away from the Southeast Division title. Joe Johnson scored a game-high 25 points and Dwyane Wade added 14 points.  

The Heat average 100.2 points per game on 47.1 percent shooting overall (4th in the league) and 33.9 percent from beyond the arc and they grab 44.1 rebounds per game. Defensively, Miami gives up 98.4 points per game (fifth in the NBA) and their opponents shoot 44.2 percent from the floor (ninth in the league) and 34.7 percent from three-point range and pull down 41.3 rebounds per game.

Dwyane Wade leads the Heat with 19.1 points and 1.1 steals, Hassan Whiteside averages 14.2 points and team-bests with 11.9 rebounds and 3.7 blocks and Goran Dragic adds 14.1 points and a team-best 5.9 assists.

 

Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics have lost their last two games to fall to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Celtics are coming off a tough 114-100 home loss against the Hornets last night. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley led the way in the setback with 17 points apiece. It was Boston's third loss in their past 21 games at the TD Garden.

The Celtics average 105.8 points per game (fifth in the league) and shoot 44.0 percent from the floor and 33.5 percent from three-point range and they pull down 45.0 rebounds per game (sixth in the NBA). Boston allows 102.7 points per game and their opponents shoot 44.1 percent overall (eighth in the league) and 33.9 percent from beyond the arc (fifth in the NBA) and grab 46.0 rebounds per game.

Isaiah Thomas leads the Celtics with 22.2 points and 6.2 assists, Avery Bradley averages 15.2 points per game and Jae Crowder adds 14.2 points and a team-best 1.8 steals.

Betting Trends
The Heat are 43-37 ATS, 19-14 ATS in the second half of the season and 21-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The Celtics are 2-4 ATS in April games, 14-17 ATS in the second half of the season and 5-7 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more    

 

Final Analysis
The Celtics are a 5.5-point favorite on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 206.5. The Celtics lead the season series with the Heat 2-0, winning both meetings by double figures, including a 101-89 home victory on February 27.   

Both teams have something to play for, but the Celtics can earn home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and their crowd will play a big role in this contest, creating a postseason atmosphere. That being said, I just can't see them covering this spread after last night's performance and against a talented Heat team that also needs this win. I'm taking the Heat +4.5 with my NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Heat +4.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline