The Cavs and Warriors play in a crucial Game 4 tonight, and I have three player props that you can use to beat the book with props tonight.
Richard Jefferson O/U 11.5 points and rebounds
As you can imagine, after easily cashing on Richard Jefferson’s points and rebounds total in Game 3, my surprise is pretty great that his total actually went down a half point. Even though it looks like Kevin Love is going to play, there is a chance he comes off the bench in favor of Richard Jefferson even if he’s active.
The Cavaliers simply play better with Jefferson taking some of Love’s minutes. Love might still hit 28-30 minutes tonight, but the duties at small and power forward are going to give Jefferson about that amount as well.
If you look at the net rating of the Cavs with Jefferson in the lineup here in the playoffs, the Cavs have a net rating of 41.7 with Jefferson, Lebron James and bench players, and the lineup that’s right behind that one is Jefferson in for Kevin Love. The Cavs are +33.3 in the playoffs with those five players on the court, and what’s dooming for Love is that they are a better rebounding team with Jefferson in the game.
Last season Andrew Bogut basically had his role disappear because the need to switch Andre Iguodala in the starting lineup, and now the Cavs are faced with the same thing. In no way is Love’s role going to disappear, but he will surely have a chunk of his minutes given to Jefferson at the beginning and end of the game.
My Pick: OVER 11.5 (-125) at Bovada
Shaun Livingston O/U 13 points, rebounds and assists
After a spectacular Game 1, Shaun Livingston has had two games of marginal outcomes. They won so easy in Game 2 that he probably could have had a bigger impact in more minutes, but assuming this game isn’t a blowout, I expect Livingston to play in the high 20s in minutes tonight.
Much like the Cavs being better in the playoffs with Jefferson in the game for Love, the Warriors’ best lineup is with Livingston and Andre Iguodala in the game for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry. Now, a big reason for that was the Curry injuries earlier in the playoffs, but the Warriors now they can just as easily go super small and bring in Curry for Barnes. That lineup is going to see some more time on the floor in Game 4, and I expect Livingston to come out and have a big game if he can get the minutes.
So far in the playoffs, Livingston has shown that he can score in double figures. He has seven double figure scoring games this postseason, and if you don’t include the hard fought Thunder series where he saw 20 minutes only once, in the eight games this postseason where he has played at least 25 minutes, he has scored in double-figures in six of those games, and he went for 10 assists in one of those when Curry was hurt. Livingston plays well regardless if Curry is on the floor or not, and that makes him a steal of a value here at only 13 points, rebounds and assists.
My Pick: OVER 13 (-105) at Bovada