NBA Picks: Best NBA Teams To Bet On & Against, Current Trends

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, March 30, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

Let’s look at the Best and the Worst of the current ATS Records heading into play on Tuesday night and with less than a month left in the NBA’s Regular Season. Also for our avid SBR website readers, a hesitant NBA pick for Wednesday night based on one of these Trends.

A modern analysis of the current NBA ATS Records reveals many things often left unsaid or overlooked by many betting the NBA, including many Trends which have been consistent all year like fading the Timberwolves in Minnesota and betting against the Kobe Bryant-anchored Lakers who seemed to have checked out of the Hotel California last month.

Let’s look at the Best and the Worst of the current ATS Records heading into play on Tuesday night and with less than a month left in the NBA’s Regular Season. Also for our avid SBR website readers, a hesitant NBA pick for Wednesday night based on one of these Trends. Current Best/Worst ATS Records:

Current Overall ATS
Best: San Antonio Spurs
42-31-1 ATS (57.5%)
San Antonio (37-0 SU at Home) has the Most ATS Wins and the least ATS Losses yet still a hard team to consistently back with Pop and his lineups. Best approach? Spurs 1st Quarter.

Worst: Chicago Bulls 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%)
Chicago has been ravaged by Injuries to starters Noah, Gasol, Rose, Butler and key Reserve Mirotic and oddsmakers have been about 2 points heavy on Chicago all Regular Season.

Current Home ATS
Best: Detroit Pistons 22-13-1 ATS (62.9%)
The Pistons edgd San Antonio (22-14-1) by over 1 percentage point (61.1%) by virtue of that one less Loss in the ATS Loss column and their 13 ATS Home Losses in a league low for now.

Worst: Minnesota Timberwolves 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%)
The Timberwolves have been like this at the Target Center all year but did draft the NBA’s best Rookie in Karl-Anthony Towns (18.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.8 bpg) and have a huge piece of the puzzle from which to build around. The Timberwolves edged out both the Houston Rockets (14-22-0 ATS) and the Sacramento Kings (14-22-0 ATS) for this honor for now at least.

Current Road ATS
Best: Denver Nuggets 22-14-2 ATS (61.1%)
The Nuggets have been consistently getting too many points from on the NBA Odds, although Denver has is just 3-4 ATS its L7 Road games so some numerical corrections as well as some statistical reversion to the mean going on over these last two months of the Regular Season.

Worst: Phoenix Suns 12-25-0 ATS (32.4%)
The Suns have consistently been eclipsed on the Road this season and if there were a couple of these segments of these specific Trends you would have wanted to back blindly all year, it would be betting against the tumultuous and ever-changing Suns on the Road (7-30 SU).

Current Home Over ATS
Best: New Orleans Pelicans
28-9-0 ATS (75.7%)
Twenty-eight Overs in 37 games is pretty freaky yet seldom have I read or heard of this wonderful Trend and why in the name of Pete Maravich haven’t we been banging Pelicans Overs in The Big Easy? Especially in the hardest and most frustrating league on which to bet, the NBA?

Worst: Los Angeles Clippers 10-25-2 ATS (28.6%)
The “Worst Current Home Over ATS” category is the same thing as the “Best Current Home Under ATS” if you really think about it but I haven’t the Time for such foolishness but this would be King of the Specific Trends now—simply taking Clippers Home games Under, which is presently hitting at a 71.4% clip. Get it?

Current Road Over ATS
Best: Minnesota Timberwolves
23-11-3 ATS (67.6%)
The Timberwolves must be being underestimated in their Offensive abilities away from Minneapolis or teams just play lazier Defense because they see Minnesota on the schedule at Home, or something like that? Who knows, but maybe the addition of Kentucky super-Rookie Towns and his Offensive production have changed the Timberwolves culture on the Road.

Worst: New Orleans Pelicans 11-23-2 ATS (32.4%)
Such an Over-ish team at Home and such an Under-ish team away from Louisiana, Anthony Davis and the Pelicans have been an enigma both on the hardwood and the hard drive this season. Will be interesting to see if this statistical dichotomy continues next season.

Best SU Record vs Conference: Golden State 40-5 vs Western Conference
Worst SU Record vs Conference: Philadelphia 3-42 vs Eastern Conference
Best Average Point Differential: San Antonio Spurs +11.7 ppg (104.3 AF-92.6 AA)
Worst Average Points Differential: Philadelphia 76ers -10.4 ppg (97.2 AF-107.6 AA)

What I Get From the Numbers That I Wish I Knew in October: To take Pelicans Overs when they are on the Road and to back the Pelicans Unders when they play at Home at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Combined, that reality would currently be 46-22-5 ATS, or hitting at a 67.6% clip. And we (almost) all wonder WTF “Smoothie King” is...

 

Streaks and Freaks For Us Sports Betting Geeks
Currently Running Hot ATS
Utah Jazz: 8-2 ATS L10, 8-2 SU L10
Oklahoma City Thunder: 7-2 ATS L9, W8 SU Straight
Atlanta Hawks: 7-3 ATS L10, 9-1 SU L10
Sacramento Kings: 6-3-1 ATS L10, 4-6 SU L10
Philadelphia 76ers: W3 ATS but L9 straight

Currently Running Cold ATS
Los Angeles Lakers: 1-8 ATS L9, L4 SU straight, 2-8 SU L10
Golden State Warriors: 1-4 ATS L5, W4 Straight SU
Portland Trail Blazers: 1-4 ATS L5
Milwaukee Bucks: 2-5 L7 ATS, 1-6 L7 SU
Brooklyn Nets: 3-7 L10 ATS
Memphis Grizzlies 3-7 L10 ATS
Los Angeles Clippers: 3-7 ATS L10 but W3 straight SU
Indiana Pacers: 2-4 L6 ATS

 

Preview For a Wednesday Game Where Current ATS Trend Applies
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Los Angeles Clippers will still be without F Blake Griffin, but this team has W3 SU and are close to nailing down that 4th spot in the Western Conference, and that valuable Homecourt advantage for Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs that comes with that positioning. Kevin Garnett, Andrew Wiggins and the Timberwolves (14-30-1 ATS L45 Home games, 31.8%) have been the worst in the NBA at Home as mentioned above (13-23-1 ATS) and Minnesota is 3-4 ATS its L7 at Home heading in here. Chris Paul and the Clippers (+4000 to win NBA Championship, William Hill) are 2-1-1 ATS the L4 meetings here at the Target Center in Minneapolis -they pushed as 4-point chalks here the meeting in December, 110-106- while the Road team a profitable 21-7-1 ATS the L29 meetings (75% in this series). And as always, buy the hook if you can because the only thing that’s stranger than consistently betting on the NBA are those Lincoln car commercials with Matthew McConaughey, people’s love for Pitbull, premium Near Beer, Google Glass and Spam.

Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -5½ -105
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage