NBA Picks: Back 'Over' As Jazz Bounces Back Tonight Over Defenseless Rockets

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 4, 2016 3:51 PM GMT

The Jazz have been battling injuries galore recently, but they have a chance to get back on track over the defenseless Rockets tonight. Get the best NBA picks for tonight here.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 200½
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Jazz Injuries vs. Rockets Bad Defense
Utah has had it harder than almost every team in the NBA this season when it comes to injuries. They lost their stud point guard to an ACL injury before the season even started, they are once again without Alec Burks after his most recent injury, and both of their big men are in danger of missing this one as well. While Rudy Gobert is getting close to coming back after his MCL sprain, Derrick Favors has missed Utah’s last five games with back spasms, and if he can not go again tonight, it might spell bad news for Utah’s chances of getting a win.

With all of the unknown, and with the potential for more Utah players to be out again tonight, the spread is simply off limits for me in this one. However, the total presents some nice value at only 200½ points. The Jazz play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA, and they should once again try and slow down the Rockets as much as possible tonight. The problem with that is if they don’t have Favors, they won’t be able to get half court baskets very easily. Gordon Hayward has been outstanding without Favors and Gobert, but if he is the only threat tonight for the Jazz, it might be easier for the Rockets to make anyone other than Hayward beat them.

There is a problem with that as well too, because even though the Jazz are easier to game plan for without Favors, the Rockets can’t play defense to save their lives. In their last four games, all of which were losses, the Rockets have given up over 116 points per game on average. With them giving up 106 points per game on average for the season, you can bet that even without some of their starters tonight, the over still looks like a great play between these two Western Conference foes.

 

The Sharp Pick
Utah is only 6-6 SU versus the West this season but they are giving up over 98 points per game in those 12 games, and they are scoring a little more as well against conference opponents. If they are forced to speed up their game plan tonight, potentially without Favors, the over still looks like the safest NBA pick. In their five games without Favors recently, the over has only cashed twice, but in those two games the Jazz scored over 100 points against two bad defensive Western Conference teams in Portland and the Clippers.

Tonight against Houston, I see a game similar to those two if Favors sits, and even if he plays, the Jazz’s defense has actually been a little worse so far this season when Favors is on the court. I see a final score of about 106-104, and based on what the NBA odds boards are offering, you should add the over to your NBA Picks tonight.

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