NBA Picks: Back Mavericks +110 & 'Under' 212 Against Winless Pelicans

Darin Zank

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 7:04 PM GMT

New Orleans made the playoffs last season, and was supposed to go back this season. But at 0-6 both straight up and against the NBA odds the Pelicans are still searching for their first victory, heading into Tuesday night's homer with the Mavericks.

Mavericks-Pelicans Betting Odds
Tuesday's NBA odds market opened the betting on this game with New Orleans favored by one or two points, with a total of right around 210. In the early action the spread was holding steady, while the total rose to 211.

 

The Situation
This game is the back half of a home-and-home; Dallas just beat New Orleans Saturday night in Big D 107-98, covering at -5. That game played UNDER a total of 211.

New Orleans is the biggest disappointment in the league so far this young NBA season, winless at 0-6, without even a single cover. But three of those losses came against some pretty good teams in Golden State, whom the Pelicans have already played twice, and Atlanta. The other losses came against Portland, Orlando and these Mavericks. Also, New Orleans has only been favored once this season, that against the Magic, so it's not like the 'Cans have been losing a bunch of games they're supposed to win. They're just banged-up at the moment, while playing some tough foes.

Dallas (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS), meanwhile, needed that victory Saturday over the Pelicans to halt a two-game losing streak. The Mavs began this season by going 2-1 on a West Coat road trip, then lost their first two home games to Toronto and Charlotte, just prior to Saturday.

Dallas trailed shorthanded New Orleans Saturday late into the third quarter, but used a 17-5 run to take control. On the night the Mavs shot 48 percent from the floor, and hit 18 of 22 free-throws, while the Pelicans shot 45 percent but attempted just 13 free-throws, making 11.

Last season Dallas took three of four games from New Orleans, winning twice at home and once on the road. So over the last five meeting in this series the Mavs are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, with the totals leaning OVER by a 3-2 margin, as those games have averaged 209 points, against an average O/U of 204.

 

Mavs-'Cans Totals Trends
Dallas is 4-2 on the UNDERS this season, as Mavs games are averaging 199.

New Orleans is also 4-2 on the UNDERS, even though Pelicans games are averaging 217 points. But that anomaly is skewed by the small sample size, and a pair of high-scoring games New Orleans played against the Warriors and Hawks.

 

Injury Update
New Orleans is without at least four guys, among them Kendrick Perkins, Norris Cole, Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter, who should be in the regular rotation, but are out with various ailments. And Anthony Davis hurt his ankle the other night, although he should play tonight. The Pelicans only had nine guys to play with Saturday, and faded in the fourth quarter.

 

Mavs-Pelicans NBA Picks
Dallas isn't all that much more than a .500 team at the moment, but New Orleans is kinda terrible, allowing opponents to shoot 49 percent from the floor, getting outrebounded by seven per game, and banged-up, to boot. We like the Mavs here, to win outright. Also, if these teams had played against tonight's total every time out this season they'd be a combined 10-2 on the UNDERS.

NBA Picks: Dallas +110 on the moneyline at YouWager and UNDER 212 at Bookmaker

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