NBA Picks: Back Home Dogs As Hornets Unfazed By Spurs Defense

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 21, 2016 12:52 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 21, 2016 12:52 PM UTC

One of the better inter-conference games on the slate tonight is the Spurs heading into Charlotte to play the Hornets. The NBA Odds have the Spurs as -6 road favorites in this one.

Spurs Road Favorites
The Spurs have been very successful this season when playing as road favorites. They are 19-13 against the NBA odds boards this year when they are favored on the road, but when they play on the road against the Eastern Conference, things get a little tougher for San Antonio. The Spurs are 8-6 ATS this season when they play on the road against the East, but recently things have gotten tougher for them. The Spurs are only 1-3 ATS in their last four games on the road against the East.

On top of that, the Spurs are only 3-4 ATS this season when they play on the road against an Eastern Conference playoff-bound team. While the Spurs dominated the Hornets in their first game against one another back in November, this Hornets team has been playing very well recently, especially SU. Charlotte has won nine of their last 11 games, and in that same stretch they are 7-4 ATS.

Charlotte has also been very good on offense at home this season, and even against the best defensive team in the league, they could still get close to 100 points. Charlotte is averaging close to 106 points per game when at home this season, and even though San Antonio is giving up a league-best 94.1 points per game on the road, the Spurs also have not played many road games recently.

Only two of their last 11 games have been on the road, and their stifling road defense has not been as potent in their most recent road games. In San Antonio’s last eight road games, they have given up over 98 points per game, and against an above average Charlotte team, the Spurs aren’t going to be able to stop everyone. That being said, the Hornets present a pretty good value tonight at +6, because once again it looks as if the sportsbooks are undervaluing them by a point or two.


The Sharp Pick
After dominating most of the league ATS in the first half of the season, the Spurs’ ATS success has dwindled some as of late. While they are still winning pretty easily SU, the Spurs are only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to right before the All Star Break.

With the Hornets playing this one in Charlotte, I think they have a very nice chance of covering the spread here. Al Jefferson has been playing well in limited minutes since returning from injury, and his presence tonight will play a big role in limiting the Spurs on the glass, and in the paint. Nicolas Batum may not be able to contribute much on offense going against Kawhi Leonard, but he could still limit Leonard on offense some.

Kemba Walker is going to be the X-factor though. If he is beating up on the Spurs’ defense, the rest of the Hornets will fall in line behind him and keep this game close. The Hornets are one of only a few teams that are as good on offense as they are on defense, and with this game potentially being lower scoring, I think that favors the home team as one of your NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Hornets +6
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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