NBA Picks: Back Grizzlies +7 to Hang Tough With Warriors

Charles Stark

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 2:12 PM GMT

I really don't think the Memphis Grizzlies are as bad as people are making them out to be this early in the season. Tonight they get a chance at some redemption, are they our NBA pick?

Betting Odds
NBA odds makers across the board have this game at about -7 favoring the Warriors. For me this puts the value squarely on the Memphis Grizzlies at home at +7. For one of my selection I will take Memphis in this spot plus the points. Another added factor is that you can get them at good value odds like at Pinnacle.

 

Golden State Warriors
Golden State comes in averaging 114.9 points per game, shooting 47.2% from the field, and 39.7% from distance. They are the best team in the league, and I don't think there is much to argue this fact. They rank number one in the league in three-point percentage, shooting efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and points per game. They have also though been the benefactors of some pretty nice scheduling at the beginning of the year only having to travel three out of their first eight games. I think tonight they will find a bit more resistance than they did in the first matchup with Memphis where things just got out of control, so I don't expect them to just roll into Memphis and win by double digits. Stephen Curry and the supporting cast have been amazing this season, but expect the Grizzlies at home to be a surprisingly difficult challenge.

Defensively Golden State is allowing 97.1 point per game, 41.7% shooting from the field, and 29.4% shooting from distance. That is what I like about Golden State, just because there are good on offense they don't neglect this side of the floor. They work really hard on the defensive end and Memphis has not shot the ball particularly well this season. Still, Memphis is going to use their defense to turn into offense and I expect a maximum effort by them to knock down some shots.

 

Memphis Grizzlies
Offensively Memphis is averaging 91 points per game, shooting 40.5% of the field, and 26.4% from beyond the arc. These are some of the worst numbers in the league, so why take them tonight? Mostly because I don't think these numbers fit to actually how good they are, and simply to the fact they are a defensive minded team first and foremost. They do have guys that can score but I expect them tonight to lean on their defense. As Memphis gets the chance to play some more home games these next couple weeks look for all these averages to go up. Also, expect Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to have a really solid game in the interior tonight.

Defensively Memphis is allowing 100.8 points per game, 36.3% shooting from the field, and 40.4% shooting from the on the arc. Again, these are some of the worst numbers in the league and shocking for Memphis fans. They have started to pick things up on this end and in the last two games that held both Utah and the Los Angeles Clippers to just over 40% shooting from the field. This is a good sign for them because defense is what this organization is all about. Tonight they will have to play perfectly on this end to pull off the upset, and I don't know if they can do that, but I do expect them to take this game to the wire.

I can see why people would want to take Golden State on what is a relatively small line. Statistically it is a no-brainer to back the Warriors, but this is a Grizzlies team that has a solid group of veterans and should play their guts out tonight. For one of your NBA picks I recommend going against the public and backing Memphis plus the points to stay in this game until the very end.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +7 at The Greek

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