NBA Picks on ATS & Total Offer Best Betting Value for Pistons vs. Warriors

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, March 11, 2015 12:20 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2015 12:20 PM GMT

Golden State has won seven straight games against Detroit and that doesn't seem likely to end on Wednesday with the Warriors having the NBA's best overall and home record. They are 14.5-point favorites on 5Dimes with a total of 205.5.

Pistons Very Inconsistent
Detroit's season can probably be broken into thirds: the part while Josh Smith was still on it, the hot stretch after Smith was released, and then hitting the skids since just after the trade deadline.

The Pistons were terrible with Smith, who is a talented player but has perhaps the worst shot selection in the NBA. When the team lost in Brooklyn on Dec. 21 to drop to 5-23, coach and team president Stan Van Gundy had enough and waived Smith even though it left the Pistons on the hook for the $40 million or so on his contract. It worked. The team played vastly better and even got into the playoff race at the bottom of the East. However, in a loss Jan. 24 in Milwaukee, point guard Brandon Jennings was lost for the season to injury.

Thus Pistons were OK for about a month without Jennings. It seemed like that may continue after Detroit was able to acquire guard Reggie Jackson from Oklahoma City at the Feb. 19 deadline. The Pistons won the game after landing Jackson and in his actual debut on Feb. 22. They haven't since. Detroit lost dropped a seventh straight and fell to 23-40, ending any playoff hopes, with a 93-85 defeat at the L.A. Lakers on Tuesday night. Jackson was awful with two points on 1-for-9 shooting with five turnovers and three fouls. He's shooting 35.9 percent from the field with Detroit and is probably costing himself millions of dollars as a free-agent-to-be. Greg Monroe might leave this offseason as well as a free agent, so Van Gundy has a lot of work to do.

Detroit is 29-34 against the NBA betting spread this season and 26-35-2 'over/under.'

Let These Hot Trio of ATS Plays Increase Your Profit Tonight!

Warriors Nearly Invincible in Oakland
Golden State (50-12) seems a lock to break the franchise record of 59 wins set by the 1975-76 club of Rick Barry, Jamaal Wilkes, Clifford Ray and others. That team reached the Western Conference Finals. I'm not sure the Warriors even get out of the first round of the 2015 playoffs if they have to face Oklahoma City, which would easily be the best No. 8 seed in NBA history. It would be a shame to see one of those teams out so early if fully healthy.

The Warriors are 27-2, meaning they can't set the NBA's best all-time single-season home record. That was 40-1 by the 1985-86 Celtics but just two losses would tie for the second-best mark. The 72-win Chicago Bulls team was one that finished 39-2 at home.  Golden State has an overall plus-minus of 15.3 points at home that is nearly twice that of the second place team (Portland).

Coach Steve Kerr's team has a four-game winning streak going and has taken a comfortable lead over No. 2 Memphis atop the West. Steph Curry is trying to hold onto his MVP favored status over Houston's James Harden and Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook, and Curry had 36 points in Monday's 98-80 win in Phoenix. It was Curry's 13th game this season with at least 30. Klay Thompson added 25, his career-high-tying 18th game of at least 25 this season. Golden State held Phoenix to 37.7 percent shooting and improved to 32-0 this season when holding the opposition to less than 100 points.

Golden State is 36-25-1 against the spread this season and 27-35 'over/under' on NBA odds

 

Season Series
On Nov. 30 in Detroit, the Warriors were 8.5-point favorites at sportsbooks (total of 202) and won 104-93. Draymond Green, who grew up not far from Detroit and attended nearby Michigan State, had 20 points and Curry 16 points and 10 assists. That was the Pistons' eighth straight loss at the time and dropped them to 3-14 (would lose the next five games as well). Smith had 14 points (just 6-for-18 from the field), 12 assists and nine rebounds while Jennings had 22 points. The Pistons were actually plus-1 with Smith on the court and plus-2 with Jennings.  The Warriors have held the Pistons to fewer than 100 points in each of their last seven meetings.

NBA Free Picks: Detroit +14.5 and 'under' 205.5 points is our NBA picks. The Warriors will win, but you have to take two-plus touchdowns. I actually think Detroit will be fairly motivated here to play well. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their past nine road games vs. teams with a winning home record. The Warriors have failed to cover their past six against teams below .500. The 'under' is 12-2 in Golden State's past 14 games. 

comment here