NBA Picks: 76ers vs. Nuggets

Joe Freda

Thursday, March 21, 2013 1:10 PM GMT

Free NBA picks for tonight's matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets. Where do our NBA handicappers believe that the best value lies?

The Denver Nuggets have reeled off 13 straight victories, cashing at NBA betting windows with a 4-1-1 spread record in the span’s six home dates. George Karl’s club returns to Pepsi Center for Thursday’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers, who play the second night of a back-to-back after a 3-1-1 ATS mark in their last five games.

Will the Nuggets keep rolling here at home or do the 76ers have enough in the tank to stay close? Find out where we believe that the best value lies for our sports picks in this matchup.

Nuggets, Lawson upset OKC

Denver’s latest triumph came in Tuesday’s 114-104 win as a 9 ½-point road dog against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets trailed early by 10 points, while rallying to outscore Oklahoma City in the second half, 49-38.

Nuggets guard Ty Lawson notched a team-high 25 points, while uniting with mate Andre Miller for 13 assists. Denver’s Kenneth Faried came away with his fifth double-double in nine games, finishing with 13 points and 15 boards.

The matchup’s combined 218 points ‘pushed’ the closing ‘total,’ making the UNDER 4-2-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven games. Denver outscored the Thunder in paint points, 72-50, while edging OKC in the rebounds, 52-45.

76ers blown away in L.A.

Philadelphia logged a 101-72 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in Wednesday’s front end of its back-to-back. The 76ers allowed Los Angeles to hit 52.6 percent of its field buckets, while failing to cash as 11-point road dogs.

76ers mates Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes united for 29 points and 15 boards, with Hawes adding a team-high seven assists. Philadelphia’s Jrue Holiday was held to a 1-for-8 night from the floor, while notching three of his side’s six steals. 

The lopsided affair’s combined 173 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 194 ½, ending a 2-0 run for the OVER in the 76ers’ prior pair of duels. Philadelphia hit 8-of-10 free throws, while outscored in the fourth quarter, 27-14.

[gameodds]5/222203/43/us[/gameodds]

Back the Nuggets at home

The NBA odds makers at 5Dimes.eu opened the Nuggets as a -14 point home favorite, while first posting the ‘total’ at 206. Early betting action on OKC and the UNDER drove the digits south to two and 207 ½, respectively. Denver’s Ty Lawson (16.9 PPG) is listed as “questionable” for Thursday’s matchup, nursing a heel injury stemming from Tuesday’s victory. Most online sportsbooks initially left numbers off the board due to Lawson’s status. 

For tonight's NBA picks, I am laying the points with Denver in this spot, looking for the Nuggets to continue pouring it on another foe. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home spots against clubs with losing road records, while having a chance for revenge after October’s 84-75 defeat in Philadelphia.

Denver has had its share of weapons outside of Lawson, including big men Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee – who presently make up two of the Western Conference’s top four shooters. Faried ranks seventh in the West for rebounds (9.5 RPG), while Andre Iguodala gets another shot at his old mates here after a subpar outing in October. 

Philadelphia dropped to a 4-10 spread record in their last 14 games after Wednesday’s defeat, while coming into Denver with a 7-20 ATS mark in its last 27 spots on no rest. The stretch included a 107-96 defeat in Atlanta, two weeks ago, with the 76ers allowing a 53.8 percent night of field shooting from the Hawks.

Look for the 76ers to slide again here, while Denver adds another cashed ticket to its 18-7-1 spread record in its last 26 matchups that came after a victory.

Free NBA Pick:  Denver Nuggets minus the points at 5Dimes