Despite being like a rollercoaster over the last month, we still have a very slight profit left from this season. We still have plenty of basketball left in both the regular and post season, so let’s take a look at this Atlantic division game tonight, and see where the value lies for our sports picks.
The NBA Odds are favoring the Nets here at -7 ½, with a total of 192 ½. It looks as if the slight early lean by the public is on the Sixers, so would that be a wise move this evening?
At this point in the season, making your NBA picks has become more like picking the right lottery ticket at the counter. They all look good, but it is much harder to predict than back in January and February. There are a few reasons for this.
Firstly because at this point in the season, 12-14 teams are either tanking or not playing as hard as they normally do. On top of that, all 30 teams are dealing with nagging injuries, which is leading to more game time decisions and more headaches for NBA bettors and fans alike.
So what do we do? Well the short answer is there really isn’t much else you can do than work harder. The sportsbooks are having to work harder at this point in the NBA season as well, so don’t think it’s just handicappers and bettors.
I have been trying to counter the late season shenanigans with totals, which has been marginally successful for me this season. In tonight’s game, the total of 192 ½ is a bit iffy, considering the Nets are great on defense at home. However, I think the one thing we can bank on in this game is the Nets scoring a bunch, and I’ll get more into that below.
Late season blues
This has been the most depressing season for 76ers fans ever since the 1972-1973 season, where they had a winning percentage of just over ten percent. If it wasn’t for those Bobcats, we would still be talking about how that was the worst season in NBA history.
My point is the Sixers have lost all faith and the first thing to go was the defense. At home they still aren’t bad, but on the road this season, Philadelphia is giving up 97 points per game. They just got done giving up 106 to a depleted Heat team, and over their last ten they have given up right at their average for the season on the road.
The Sharp Pick
While the line won’t be out for another few hours, I’m siding with the over for the Nets’ team total. Not only should the Sixers give up close to 100 points, but also the Nets have been averaging 104 points per over their last ten games.
Joe Johnson is a little banged up, but I expect him to play at least some tonight, because he has played in their last two games logging about 30 minutes in each. The team totals should be out soon, and with some totals already dipping down to 192 and lower, Brooklyn’s team total should be right at or just under 100 points. I think they travel north of that tonight.
In their three meetings this season, the Nets have averaged just over 100 points against Philadelphia. Brooklyn still needs to win a few more games to lock up that 4th seed, so they will be gunning for this win for most of the game.
My NBA Pick: Nets TT OVER 99 ½