SBR's NBA handicappers breakdown the current sportsbook offerings fo the 2013-14 NBA MVP Award. Will 'The King' take home the crown once again, or will the title find a new owner this season?
NBA MVP Odds breakdow
Now is the time to put in work, and even though the future odds are a very small part of that, there can be value in some of these odds. Let’s take a look at the NBA Odds for MVP this season, and see if Lebron James will win his third straight, (5th overall) or will one of the underdogs come through?
The only two players worth of the tier 1 title are James and Kevin Durant. Lebron is at a commanding +140 while Durant is at a solid +350 to win the MVP. Obviously James will be the clear favorite for the public. His dominance the last few seasons has been unmatched. However if Durant can have a banner year, on top of a great statistical season, he could find himself winning the award.
Durant would have to lead the league in scoring and shoot 50% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% from the free throw line, but that is very possible considering he almost did it last season. It might take 30 points per game for the season, but at the value of +350, the pick of Durant is just as viable as a pick on James.
Both of these guys are extremely capable of winning the award this season, but find themselves as large underdogs. Derrick Rose is +1000 in the NBA Odds just two years removed from winning it for the first time. If Rose’s knee is fully healed after over a year off of basketball, he should be very capable of challenging Lebron and Durant.
The other guy in this level has to be Chris Paul, and at Bovada, he is +1100 to win the award for our NBA picks. Paul will be playing alongside a much-upgraded Clipper team, and along with Rose, I would consider these guys easily as the next best bets right under Lebron and KD. Only Carmelo Anthony is ranked in between the four of these players, but the Knicks could be headed for a less than successful season, and Carmelo’s window might already be closing.
The only way you could bet either of these guys is if you are expecting a long-term injury to one of the tier 1 guys, but because that is unlikely, an actual wager on these two would be a stretch. However Stephen Curry and Paul George are both valuable and irreplaceable contributors to their team, and even more valuable in the NBA Odds. Curry is 30/1 to win the MVP while George is 35/1.
It would take an injury and a small miracle, and I would consider Curry the definite better option between the two. However this is the NBA, and those two players are close to, if not superstars in the NBA already, and Curry is 25, while George is just 23 years old. They could be far from their peaks.
The Sharp Pick
I have to say by best bet combination is on both KD and Lebron, along with a flier bet on Rose at 10/1. Those three seem to be the best bets for the NBA MVP Odds this summer. If I can pick only one, based on value, Durant at +350 is the most valuable. Another scoring championship along with shooting 50/40/90 might be enough to net Durant the award, especially if he ups his rebounding, assists and defensive stats again in 2014. Last season Durant’s scoring was down, but he raised his assist totals by one, and he averaged nearly 1.5 blocks and steals per game.