NBA Pick on Wizards, Raptors to sneak ‘over’ Total in Game 2

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 21, 2015 2:49 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

 



After an ugly Game 1, look for a bit more scoring Tuesday night when the fifth seeded Washington Wizards (47-36, 18-24 away) again pay a visit to the fourth seeded Toronto Raptors (49-34, 27-15 home) for Game 2 of their first round series from Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on NBA TV, with the Wizards leading the series 1-0.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 191½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.


Only Road Team to Win So Far
In the very first NBA Playoff game of this season, the Wizards won an ugly game in overtime 93-86 here in Toronto and as of this minute, Washington remains the only team to win on the road this post-season as the home teams have gone 9-0 straight up since that opener through Monday night’s games! Game 1 brought the road teams to 6-1 ATS and 5-2 straight up in the last seven head-to-head meetings in this series.

The Raptors can ill afford being the outright losing NBA picks here at home again in Game 2, as to this point only three teams in NBA Playoff history have come back to win a series after losing the first two games at home, with the last team to do it being the Dallas Mavericks vs. the Houston Rockets in 2005. As fate would have it, those two teams are also facing each other in this first round this year.


Toronto Games Still Averaging More than 200 Points
With the Raptors being in that desperation mode, we have a hard time going against them here but we also feel that they are a tad overvalued, so we are passing on the side. However, the ugly shooting in Game 1 may actually be serving to give us good line value on the ‘over’ in Game 2, as that final total output in the series opener of 179 easily stayed ‘under’ the posted total of 194½ despite the added overtime period, and the posted total tonight is three full points lower!

We think that may be an over-adjustment as it is not as if Game 1, which stood at merely 164 total points at the end of regulation time, was a typical performance for these teams. In fact, if we include Game 1 and combine it with the regular season, the Raptors are still both scoring and allowing more than 100 points per game, averaging 103.8 points for and 100.8 points against over all of their games.

Toronto finished the regular season fourth in the NBA in scoring and 19th in points against, a combination seemingly conducive to a lot of ‘overs’, and indeed it was with the ‘over’ going 45-37 in all Raptors’ games during the season.


Washington Games Average Enough Points to go ‘over’ Too
Now, Washington games have not been as high scoring as the Wizards finished the regular season only 17th in points scored and respectable 10th in points allowed, and if you combine Game 1 with the regular year, the Wizards are averaging 98.5 points per game and allowing 97.7 over all of their contests.

But while that pales in relation to Toronto games, take note that the combined average of all Washington contests of 196.2 points is still nearly five points higher than the posted total for Game 2, again indicating an over-adjustment in anticipation of a lot of ‘under’ money from novice bettors that often come out of the woodwork to bet the playoffs and that are basing their plays on the total tonight solely from what they saw in Game 1.

Also note that the ‘over’ was 7-2 in the Wizards’ last nine games vs. fellow Eastern Conference teams during the season, further fueling the belief that Game 1 was an anomaly.


Better Guard Play Expected from Both Teams
Speaking of anomalies, these two teams combined to shoot 12-for-50 from beyond the three-point arc on Saturday, as each team’s backcourt was miserable shooting the basketball. For the Wizards, John Wall had just 10 points while shooting 5-for-18 from the filed while Bradley Beal scored 16 points but on 6-for-23 shooting. For the Raptors, Kyle Lowry went 2-for-10 and finished with seven points while DeMar DeRozan went 6-for-20 and scored 15.

All four of those shooting performances from each backcourt were worse than their seasonal average, so with a bump expected from more “normal” shooting, take advantage of the deflated total by going ‘over’ when Washington again visits Toronto north of the border for Game 2 Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Wizards, Raptors ‘over’ 191½ (-105)