Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
The ‘under’ is 3-0 on this series so far and this posted total is high enough to not look to buck that streak Monday night when the top seeded Golden State Warriors (78-17, 33-14 away) again pay a visit to the second seeded Houston Rockets (64-33, 36-13 home) for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals from the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN, with the Warriors on the verge of a sweep leading the series 3-0.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 213 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.
Warriors on Serious ‘under’ Run
Yes the Warriors led the NBA in scoring during the season with the help of league MVP Stephen Curry, but what sometimes gets overlooked is they also led the league in both defensive efficiency and field goal percentage allowed, and that unit has keyed a current 9-1 ‘under’ run in these playoffs and that defensive dominance was never more evident than while holding James Harden to three field goals made and 17 points in the Game 3 blowout here on Saturday.
The Rockets on the other hand finished just 17th in points against during the regular season and they allowed over 112 points per game in their come-from-behind seven-game series win over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference semifinals, but they were surprisingly effective defensively the first two games of this series and even while being the losing NBA picks the third straight time Saturday, they still only allowing Golden State to shoot 45.4 percent.
Elimination Game ‘under’ Trend
With this now being an elimination game with the Warriors having a chance to sweep this series and get plenty of rest before the NBA Finals begin next Thursday, June 4th, it is again time to reference the Elimination Game ‘under’ System posted by goldengreek in Sportsbook Review Forum. Updating for the results this season, the ‘under’ is now 131-84-3 in all elimination games since the 2004 NBA Playoffs including 56-36-1 from the second round on!
The Warriors may have finished just 15th during the season in points against at 99.9 per game, but that was merely a by-product of leading the NBA in pace rating with 100.7 possessions per game. Golden State has actually slowed its pace to 95.2 possessions per game during the playoffs, and that has made the fine defense more obvious as the Warriors are third in points against during the playoffs at 94.3 per game while holding opponents to 42.7 percent shooting.
How Will Rockets Respond?
The Rockets gave indications that this would be a longer and tighter series than many believed before it began by playing the Warriors surprisingly tight in Oakland the first two games, at a venue where the Warriors are now 45-3 straight up this year, losing Gam1 by four points and Game 2 by one point. Thus there was tremendous optimism with the Rockets returning home to Houston for Game 3.
That optimism was reflected by the Rockets actually closing as 1½-point favorites in that game, but instead the Warriors proved their superiority with a 35-point annihilation 115-80. And not only did Golden State contain Harden like very few teams have all year, but the Rockets shot just 33.7 percent overall in their own building in their biggest game of the year.
Thus one must question the psyche of the Rockets coming into this game after laying such a dud at home, knowing that no NBA Playoff team in history has ever overcome an 0-3 series deficit to come back to win and they cannot possibly expect to have another miraculous comeback vs. a team of the Warriors’ caliber like they did vs. the underachieving Clippers.
Also a Surprising ‘under’ Head-to-Head Series
Finally, do not forget that the ‘under’ has dominated this head-to-head series as it is now 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall and an identical 9-3 in the last 12 meetings here in Houston.
With this posted total seemingly not adjusted as much as it probably should be, look for yet another ‘under’ when Golden State visits Houston for a potential elimination Game 4 on Monday.
NBA Pick: Warriors, Rockets ‘under’ 213 (-106)