NBA Pick on Warriors over Rockets in a Game 1 Blowout

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 19, 2015 2:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 19, 2015 2:52 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.


The team with the best record in the NBA seems to have a distinct advantage as the Western Conference Finals begin Tuesday night when the second seeded Houston Rockets (64-30, 27-18 away) pay a visit to those Golden State Warriors (75-17, 43-3 home) for Game 1 from Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Golden State as a large favorite for this contest with the current line at -10½ with odds of -103.

Warriors Regrouped Last Three Games
The Warriors had some problems early on vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, but they eventually proved their superiority by overcoming a 1-2 series deficit and winning the last three games to win the series in six, finally solving the Memphis defense and being able to run to their liking. After all, tempo was a huge reason why Golden State went 67-15 during the regular season, as it was the only NBA team to average at least 100 possessions per game at 100.7.

The Rockets meanwhile were in far more dire straits in their conference semifinal vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, trailing the series 1-3 after getting blown out by 25 and 33 points in Game 3 and Game 4 respectively. However they were then the winning NBA picks in the last three games thanks to a miraculous comeback in Game 6 on the road where a 40-15 fourth quarter wiped out a 19-point deficit before an easy wire-to-wire win in Game 7 Sunday.

Golden State Should Face Less Resistance
Besides owning the best record in basketball, the Warriors are also the much fresher team here after ending their series with Memphis Friday, and truth be told they did not really need to exert much energy those last three games with all of the wins being rather decisive. Golden State had trouble with the fact that the Grizzlies played great defense and were able to slow games to a crawl offensively early on, but it was smooth sailing once the Warriors figured things out.

Now the Warriors are facing a team that plays no defense, with Houston in fact allowing a hideous 112.6 points per game over the seven games vs. the Clippers, and that does not slow the pace offensively, so we should be able to see Golden State run at will here. And do not forget, the Warriors led the league in the regular season in points scored with 110.0 per game, field goal percentage at 47.8 percent and three-point shooting at 39.8 percent.

Tired Rockets Physically and Emotionally?
Besides this being a tough matchup for the Rockets physically, they also seem to be at a disadvantage having had just one day off since completing what had to be an emotional comeback vs. the Clippers Sunday. This would be a difficult matchup for Houston even under the best of circumstances, but the fatigue factor both physically and emotionally seems to be a valid concern here.

This series boasts the top two vote-getters for the NBA MVP Award, as while the trophy went to Stephen Curry, more than a few experts felt that James Harden was more deserving as the Rockets would have been just a borderline playoff team without his 27.4 points per game, so be may be on a bit of a mission in this series with a chip on his shoulder. Thus, the Rockets may be able to keep pace offensively this series just due to Harden going off alone.

However, we feel that may become more evident in the subsequent games, as even if Harden takes the team on his shoulders and keeps this game closer for a while, the Warriors should eventually pull away to an easy double-digit win once fatigue hits the Rockets around the fourth quarter, something that will not become a factor in future series games when both teams are on equal rest.

Head-to-Head Dominance
Finally, let us not forget that the Warriors went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and ATS vs. the Rockets during the regular season with all the wins coming by double-digits by an average of +15.3 points!

Although rest of this series could potentially be a little closer, look for another Golden State blowout win at home in the opener of the Western Conference Finals vs. Houston on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Warriors -10½ (-103)

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