NBA Pick on Warriors to Easily Sweep Past Pelicans in Game 4

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, April 25, 2015 3:43 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 25, 2015 3:43 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Saturday.


The team with the best record in the NBA now looks to take advantage of a demoralized team Saturday to complete an NBA Playoff first round sweep as those top seed Golden State Warriors (70-15, 29-13 away) again pay a visit to the eighth seeded New Orleans Pelican (45-40, 28-14 home) for Game 4 from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN, with the Warriors leading the series 3-0.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Golden State as a decided road favorite for this contest with the current line at -7 with odds of -102.

Can the Pelicans Have Anything Left?
After the Warriors won the first two games game of this series without covering ATS either tine, the Pelicans seemed on the verge of making this a series in front of their raucous home crowd down on the Bayou Thursday when they have a 20-point lead entering the fourth quarter and still led by 17 points with six minutes left before Golden Stare made a miraculous comeback to force overtime before prevailing 123-119 to take a 3-0 series stranglehold.

The Warriors have the best record in basketball this year but that has not prevented the Pelicans, who qualified for the playoffs by knocking off the red-hot defending champion San Antonio Spurs on the season’s final day, from now being the winning NBA picks ATS in all three games of this series. That is obviously of little consolation to New Orleans now as it simply must feel like a demoralized, beaten team after the events of two nights ago.

New Orleans Normally a Dangerous Home Dog, But…
Now going strictly by the numbers the Pelicans would be considered dangerous home underdogs, as after covering in Game 3 New Orleans is now 12-2 ATS as a home underdog this year combining the regular season and playoffs while going a sparkling 10-4 straight up in this role! However that probably goes out the window here the way the Pelicans lost Game 3 after effectively dominating the contest through the middle of the fourth quarter.

The Warriors ultimately tied the game on an off-balance three-point bucket by who else but Stephen Curry in the final seconds of regulation after Anthony Davis had missed a crucial free throw for the Pelicans that would have put the game away. We just do not see how the Pels could come back from such a devastating loss here on such short rest knowing that this series is effectively already over after leaving everything they had on the floor.

Even New Orleans Coach Monty Williams was grimly despondent after Game 3 saying, “We're all feeling like dirt right now. Obviously, you want to build them up, but there's nothing that can build you up with a situation like that.”

Warriors Now at 70 Wins
And the Warriors have not exactly been known for taking their foot off the pedal this season as they now stand at 70-15 straight up overall combining the season and playoffs with a scintillating average winning margin of +10.0 points overall over the 85 games! They showed the heart of a legitimate NBA title contender in those last six minutes of regulation Thursday, and it was not all because of Curry and Klay Thompson lighting up the scoreboard either.

Do not forget the important contribution of Draymond Green as he had seven offensive rebounds in the game, prolonging several possessions late during the ferocious Golden State comeback. This is not the same Warriors’ team of past seasons that was basically a one-dimensional jump-shooting team under former coach Mark Jackson, as they now have guys like Green doing the dirty work and they also led the NBA on defensive efficiency under Steve Kerr.

Golden State Has Even Had Rebounding Edge
Granted the Warriors rarely had huge rebounding edges during the regular season but they have won the rebounding battle in every game of this series, which is surprising vs. a team that boasts an excellent rebounder in Davis, and they crushed the Pelicans on the offensive glass with 22 offensive rebounds in Game 3.

The Warriors already do everything else well, so they will be tough to beat in subsequent rounds if they continue crashing the boards like this. But first things first, as look for Golden State to complete the sweep in possible blowout fashion in New Orleans in Saturday.

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NBA Pick: Warriors -7 (-102)

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